Physical address
4 Merchant Place Corner Fredman Drive and Rivonia Road Sandton 2196
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PO Box 650149 Benmore 2010
The FNB House Price Index growth averaged 0.8% y/y in December, marginally higher than the 0.7% in November (revised from 0.5%), and a low of 0.5% in October.
A fiscal turning point in a resilient economy', the 2026 Budget tabled by Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana, reflects that the fiscal commitment made three years ago to stabilise debt in the current fiscal year (2025/26) is on track; the main budget deficit is expected to narrow; and the primary surplus (revenue minus non-interest expenditure) is expected to grow. This is amid pressing spending priorities related to infrastructure investment and supporting vulnerable households. The budget followed through on the State of the Nation Address (SoNA) earlier in the month and was well received. Here are the highlights.
The 2026 National Budget is top of mind as we wrap up the week. In our previous publication, we covered the fiscal metrices extensively and are aligned with the consensus that revenues should be supported by the commodity price windfall; expenditure growth should be contained; and another primary surplus should be recorded, which should soften the debt trajectory^1^. That said, we think it is also important to consider fiscal priorities. Some are pre-existing, most receive keen attention in the current climate, and some appear back of mind but could come to the fore in future.
In just under two weeks, the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, will table the 2026 National Budget in Parliament, the second main budget under the Government of National Unity (GNU). Unlike the first budget, which went through three iterations as political parties sought to find common ground under the newly-formed GNU, we expect this process to be smoother this time, as the budget framework has since matured.
The South African housing market is entering 2026 at a critical cyclical turning point. After a prolonged adjustment phase following the post-pandemic tightening cycle, market conditions are shifting from a period characterised by supply-led price resilience toward a phase of gradually improving and increasingly broad-based demand.
After troughing at 2.1% y/y in May 2020, due to a lockdown-driven fall in demand and statistical imputations, headline inflation accelerated to 5.2% y/y in May of 2021. CPI weights are typically updated at least every five years, in line with international standards. New weights will be introduced with the January 2022 data and the base year will change to December 2020.
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Physical address
4 Merchant Place Corner Fredman Drive and Rivonia Road Sandton 2196
Postal address
PO Box 650149 Benmore 2010