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Economics
commentary

Economics Weekly 24 May 2024


A day after the national elections, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be announcing their decision on interest rates. Much like the previous meeting, we expect no major forecast changes and for interest rates to remain unchanged. This aligns with most analyst expectations, and interest rate cuts are only anticipated from 2H24.


 

Economics Weekly 17 May 2024


Last week we discussed South Africa's (SA) delayed cutting cycle relative to other emerging markets (EMs), particularly Latin American EMs. We indicated that not only did most of these countries start hiking rates earlier than SA but that, even with the cuts that have been delivered, real interest rates remain restrictive. We concluded that higher real interest rates in those countries make them more competitive for capital flows and touched on the levers that SA could use to improve its attractiveness.


 

Economics Weekly 10 May 2024


After recording an average of 8.7% in 2022, global inflation fell to 6.8% in 2023 and is expected fall further to 5.9% this year. By 2026, it should settle slightly below the historical average of 3.8%. This trend is driven by declining inflation in advanced economies, which is expected to fall from 4.6% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, reaching the conventional 2% target by 2025.


 

Economics Weekly 3 May 2024


Following the weaker-than-expected economic activity during the first quarter, and our updated interest rates view, we have revised our growth projections. Persistent inflation, associated risks, and the delay in the US Fed interest rate cutting cycle underpin our revised domestic interest rate outlook.


 

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