Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R340. We recommend a stop-loss at R183.
Impala Platinum Holdings (Implats) is a leading global producer of platinum group metals (PGMs) with operations in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Canada. The company is fully integrated, managing the full value chain from mining and extraction to smelting, refining, and global sales of metals such as platinum, palladium, and rhodium. In addition to its core mining business, Implats also earns revenue through toll-refining services for third-party miners and by recycling precious metals from used catalytic converters. Its products are supplied to industries including automotive, jewellery, electronics, and clean energy.
Technically, seasonal weakness generally seen during this part of the year presents an interesting opportunity for a long position (see the insert on the main chart) - while June is historically the weakest month with an average decline, it is typically followed by an improved performance through July, August, and September, with momentum carrying into year end. The strongest gains tend to occur in November and December, suggesting that periods of mid-year weakness have historically provided good entry points ahead of a broader recovery.
In addition, the share continues to trade above a key long-term support trendline (see the black trendline on the main chart) that has historically attracted strong buying interest, reinforcing a constructive outlook.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | IMP |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 209.87 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 84.51% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -9.87% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 232.06 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 379.48 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 122.74 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share price remains under pressure and is down 13.9% year-to-date, suggesting that investors remain cautious about the pace and sustainability of the recovery. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 0.81 | 32.84 | 55.25 | 47.00 |
| Growth (%) | 3953.70 | 68.26 | -14.92 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 1.65 | 17.22 | 33.02 | 31.07 |
| Growth (%) | 943.45 | 91.80 | -5.90 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 7.07 | 4.20 | 4.94 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 7.42 | 14.23 | 13.39 | |
| Consensus forecasts indicate a strong earnings jump through FY27, supporting rapidly growing dividends, high shareholder returns, and an attractive valuation, with elevated dividend yields being a key highlight. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
DCP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SSW SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 142.42 | 36.74 | 53.67 | 976.99 |
| Current Price | 141.78 | 34.97 | 48.80 | 1 003.15 |
| Movement | -0.4% | -4.8% | -9.1% | +2.7% |
| Comment |
The share remains of interest as the price continues to develop within an ascending triangle pattern while trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Although upside momentum remains relatively muted, it continues to support the trade idea. We maintain a target price of R160.00, with a stop-loss at R138.09. |
The share remains of interest within a developing ascending triangle pattern and is testing its 200-day SMA. Downside momentum remains a concern. We maintain a target price of R42.00, with a stop-loss at R34.50. |
The share remains of interest as the price action continues to develop within a broadening-top pattern. While it remains below its 200-day SMA, fading downside momentum supports the trade idea. We maintain a target price of R76.00, with a stop-loss at R45.00. |
The share remains of interest within a developing bullish pennant pattern and continues to trade above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum warrants caution. We maintain a target price of R1 202.00, with a stop-loss at R956.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 August 2026 | 3 August 2026 | 20 July 2026 | 4 November 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | GLD Stop loss (Close the position) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 727.25 |
| Current Price | 671.22 |
| Movement | -7.7% |
| Comment | The ETF hit our stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. |
| Time to exit | 17 August 2026 |
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