Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $193 and a stop-loss of $136.
Vistra Energy is a holding company operating an integrated retail and electric power generation business primarily in markets throughout the United States (US). The company is engaged in competitive energy activities including electricity generation, wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management and retail sales of electricity and natural gas to end users.
Through its retail brands, Vistra focuses on customer-centric energy solutions, including fixed and variable-rate plans, while its generation segment provides scale and flexibility to manage price volatility and demand cycles. The company has also been increasing its exposure to cleaner energy through investments in renewables and battery storage, positioning itself to adapt to the evolving transition within the US power sector.
Technically, the price is in a developing rising wedge pattern which presents an attractive buying opportunity (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart). The recent pullback brought the price toward the lower boundary of the structure, which often acts as dynamic support, where downside momentum tends to fade.
The seasonality profile since 2016 also supports a bullish case for the stock (see the insert). Since 2016, in April the stock appears to enter a consistent shift into stronger average monthly performance.
Muted downside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the sideway trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also support our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | VST US |
| Industry | Utilities |
| Market Capital (USD) | 51.7 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 16.48% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -5.19% |
| Current Price (USD) | 152.72 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 219.82 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 90.51 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is generally bearish, however, this is supportive of counter-trend reversal. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 3.54 | 8.65 | 10.82 | 12.43 |
| Growth (%) | 144.42 | 25.16 | 14.86 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.90 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| Growth (%) | 7.49 | 6.09 | 10.41 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 17.66 | 14.11 | 12.28 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.74 | |
| The company is set to deliver positive earnings growth over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | MMM - Close the position (Stop- loss) |
MSFT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
UBER - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 155.25 | 389.00 | 77.79 |
| Current Price | 142.71 | 372.74 | 72.34 |
| Movement | -8.1% | -4.2% | -7.0% |
| Comment | The share reached the predefined stop-loss level, triggering the closure of the position. |
The price at the lower range of a linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $450.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $365.00. |
A price in a developing upward sloping broadening top pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average and the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $92.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $72.00. |
| Time to exit | 13 May 2026 | 3 June 2026 |
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