By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
We initiate a long position with a target price of R46.70 and recommend a stop-loss at R39.00.
Quilter is a United Kingdom-based wealth manager offering advice-led investment solutions, financial planning, and a broad investment platform for pensions, savings and individual savings accounts (ISAs). Its model provides flexibility for advisers and clients through integrated advice, discretionary management and multi-asset portfolios. Headquartered in London and listed on both the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges, the group manages significant assets for hundreds of thousands of affluent and high-net-worth clients.
Technically, the development of Wave 1 within an Elliott Wave framework makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart), as it supports expectations for further upside potential.
The price is also forming higher highs and higher lows which, when combined with recurring price symmetry, supports our bullish outlook. Current advances mirror the rhythm of prior bullish cycles, suggesting momentum is becoming structural. If this symmetry holds, the trend favours further upside.
The price is also holding just above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R39.66, a key long-term trend indicator. Maintaining a price above this level is constructive, indicating that recent pullbacks remain corrective and that buyers continue to support the primary upward trend.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, along with the recent sideways trajectory of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, further supports the bullish bias for the share.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | QLT |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 58.14 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 23.81% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 2.12% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 41.41 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 43.85 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 29.02 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price made strong moves over the previous year. Technical indicators are currently pointing to an uplift in the near term. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Growth (%) | -18.09 | 38.89 | 8.80 | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 | |
| Growth (%) | 18.46 | 7.79 | ||
| Forward PE (times) | 21.34 | 15.36 | 14.12 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.38 | 4.01 | 4.32 | |
| Current market volatility points to flat-to-slightly lower earnings in the short term; however, the medium-term picture is more positive. The dividend yield is also attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | VAL SA - Take Profit (Close the position) |
WBC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
AVI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1 479.42 | 43.50 | 111.12 |
| Current | 1 864.39 | 43.50 | 112.23 |
| Movement | +26% | 0.0% | +1.0% |
| The stock has exceeded our intended price target, and we closed the position. | Strong volume support near the entry level remains constructive, with the share holding above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum continues to support the trade thesis. The profit target remains at R51.00, with a trailing stop at R41.70. | Based on relative-performance positioning, the share remains of interest and continues to trade above its 200-day SMA. However, upside momentum has stalled. The profit target remains at R125.00, with a trailing stop at R109.50. | |
| Time to exit | 23 March 2026 | 18 May 2026 | 22 June 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MTM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 944.40 | 3680 |
| Current | 996.00 | 4044 |
| Movement | +5.5% | +9.9% |
| A developing bullish pennant formation remains technically constructive, with the share holding above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum continues to support the trade thesis. The profit target remains at R1 042.00, with a trailing stop at R970.00. | The stable sequence of rising troughs and recurring upward impulses remains constructive. The share continues to trade above its 200-day SMA, with upside momentum supporting the trade thesis. The profit target remains at R42.00, with a trailing stop at R39.40. | |
| Time to exit | 06 April 2026 | 22 June 2026 |
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