By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R1 822. We recommend a stop-loss at R1 330.
Valterra Platinum (formerly Anglo Platinum) is a South African-based company operating within the platinum group metals (PGM) sector, contributing to one of the country's most strategic and globally significant mining industries. The company explores and produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, osmium, copper, nickel, cobalt sulphate, sodium sulphate, chrome, and gold, serving customers worldwide. Valterra Platinum produces around 2.4 million ounces of platinum and approximately 1.4 million ounces of palladium annually. Leveraging South Africa's substantial mineral reserves, the company focuses on the exploration and development of high-grade platinum assets, with a strong emphasis on sustainability and responsible mining practices. VAL demerged from Anglo American in May 2025.
The company's operational scale, diversified metal portfolio, and commitment to efficiency position Valterra Platinum as a key player within the global PGM landscape. Its integrated value chain, disciplined production strategy and strong exposure to critical metals support stable revenue generation while enabling resilience through commodity cycles.
Technically, the stock's pronounced historical upside skew and recovery momentum make it an attractive long candidate (see insert on the main chart). Valterra's return profile exhibits a clear positive bias, with rebounds typically exceeding the magnitude of preceding drawdowns. Historically, once momentum turns positive, the share has delivered sharp, outsized recoveries. If a new upswing is forming, the probability of continued upside appears elevated.
A developing Wave 5 extension strengthens the bullish outlook by signalling persistent upside momentum and the potential for higher Fibonacci-based targets. In Elliott Wave terms, an extended fifth wave reflects sustained buying pressure and trend acceleration, often pushing well beyond standard projections as prices break through resistance with strong participation. If the Wave 4 low holds and the pattern continues to generate higher highs and higher lows, the structure supports further upside before any meaningful corrective phase emerges.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | VAL |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 389.09 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 145.94% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 4.05% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 1 466.64 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 1 824.21 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 505.50 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The stock's beta of 1.85 suggests it tends to experience larger price swings than the broader market. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 32.05 | 59.94 | 131.90 | 120.70 |
| Growth (%) | 87.00 | 120.06 | -8.49 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 71.75 | 22.48 | 50.73 | 43.78 |
| Growth (%) | -68.67 | 125.66 | -13.70 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 24.46 | 11.11 | 12.14 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.53 | 3.46 | 2.99 | |
| The market anticipates that Valterra will deliver exceptional short-term earnings growth, but this momentum is not expected to be sustained over the long term due, perhaps, to uncertainty attached to underlying commodity prices. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | AVI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MTM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1 111.20 | 944.40 | 36.80 |
| Current | 1 132.60 | 948.45 | 38.28 |
| Movement | +1.9% | +0.4% | +4.0% |
| Relative-performance positioning keeps the share attractive. It remains above its 200-day SMA, with upside momentum supporting the trade thesis. We retain a R125.00 target, and the initial and trailing stop-loss at R106.00. | A developing bullish pennant remains constructive, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. However, emerging downside momentum warrants caution. We retain a R1 042 target, and a trailing stop at R924. | The established pattern of rising troughs and successive upward impulses remains constructive, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. However, fading upside momentum is a growing concern. We maintain a R42.00 target, initial and trailing stop-loss at R35.00. | |
| Time to exit | 22 June 2026 | 6 April 2026 | 22 June 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
PPH SA - Buy (Stop-loss) |
QLT SA - Buy (Stop-loss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 94.83 | 27.73 | 41.94 |
| Current | 101.63 | 26.17 | 39.23 |
| Movement | +7.2% | -5.6% | -6.5% |
| Based on its historical pattern of strong follow-through after recovery years and the improving return profile into 2025, the probability of continued upside in 2026 remains of interest. The share is holding above its 200-day SMA, although fading momentum is a concern. Our target is R110, and the trailing stop loss is R98.50. | The share reached our predefined stop-loss level, resulting in the position being closed. | The share reached our predefined stop-loss level, resulting in the position being closed. | |
| Time to exit | 24 February 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | SHP SA - Buy (Stop-loss) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 271.74 |
| Current Price | 261.23 |
| Movement | -3.9% |
| Comment | <The share reached our predefined stop-loss level, resulting in the position being closed. |
| Time to exit |
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