Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position with a target price of R46.00 and recommend a stop-loss at R39.85.
Naspers is a prominent multinational media group which has, over the last two decades, evolved from a traditional print media business in one country to a broad-based e-media company in multiple markets. Naspers' most notable investment is Prosus, which in turn has a large shareholding (~23%) in Chinese internet giant, Tencent. Prosus is focused on e-Commerce, Food Delivery, and Classifieds.
Quilter is a United Kingdom-based wealth manager offering advice-led investment solutions, financial planning and a broad investment platform for pensions, savings and ISAs.
Its model provides flexibility for advisers and clients through integrated advice, discretionary management and multi-asset portfolios. Headquartered in London and listed on both the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges, the group manages significant assets for hundreds of thousands of affluent and high-net-worth clients.
Technically, the positive alignment of trend, momentum and cycles (market regime), makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). The stacked market regime scores support a bullish bias, with trend and momentum acting as the strongest contributors and reinforcing one another. This alignment points to a sustainable advance rather than a short-term rally. The supportive cycle component also indicates that conditions are not late cycle or overstretched, suggesting that upside momentum still has room to persist.
The recent dominance of bullish weekly swings supports a positive bias, with advances lasting longer and extending further than the brief corrective pullbacks. This pattern suggests ongoing accumulation as buying pressure consistently returns after shallow declines. Such a swing structure indicates strengthening demand and an underlying trend that continues to favour higher prices over time.
The price is holding just above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R38.50, signalling that buyers are defending long term support. This typically indicates a bullish trend pause rather than a reversal, with the 200 day acting as a clear technical support zone.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | QLT |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 59.17 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 26.21% |
| Return Year-to-date | 3.92% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 42.14 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 43.26 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 29.02 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price made strong moves over the previous year. Technical indicators are currently pointing to an uplift in the near term. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Growth (%) | -1.71 | 13.89 | 8.94 | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 | |
| Growth (%) | 15.24 | 7.81 | ||
| Forward PE (times) | 17.68 | 15.52 | 14.25 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.46 | 3.98 | 4.30 | |
| Current market volatility points to flat-to-slightly lower earnings in the short term; however, the medium-term picture is more positive. The dividend yield is attractive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | NPN SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MTM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SHP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1127.80 | 36.80 | 271.74 | 94.83 |
| Current Price | 1090.33 | 37.79 | 275.60 | 99.68 |
| Movement | -3.3% | +2.7% | +1.4% | +5.1% |
| Comment | An emerging Elliott Wave B recovery remains of interest. Although the price dipped below its 200-day simple moving average, fading downside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains R1 352.00, with an initial stop-loss at R1 038.00 and a trailing stop at R1 090.00. | A stable pattern of rising troughs and repeated upward impulses remains of interest, with the price holding above its 200-day simple moving average. However, fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target remains R42.00, with an initial stop-loss at R35.00 and a trailing stop at R37.60. | Price action near the lower boundary of an upward-sloping linear regression remains of interest, despite trading below the 200-day simple moving average. Muted downside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains R307.00, with an initial stop-loss at R262.00 and a trailing stop at R276.00. | Based on its historical tendency for strong follow-through after recovery years and an improving return profile into 2025, the outlook for continued upside in 2026 remains favourable. The price holds above its 200-day simple moving average, although fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target remains R110.00, with an initial stop-loss at R89.00 and a trailing stop at R97.50. |
| Time to exit | 8 June 2026 | 22 June 2026 | 11 March 2026 | 24 February 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | VOD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ANH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
TKG SA - Take Profit (Close the Position) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 132.90 | 1031.56 | 50.50 |
| Current Price | 143.40 | 1126.31 | 60.89 |
| Movement | +7.9% | +9.2% | +20.6% |
| Comment | A period of low volatility, which may signal market stability and underlying accumulation, remains of interest, with the price holding above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains R157.00, with an initial stop-loss at R123.00 and a trailing stop at R143.00. | The price action remains firmly within an upward-sloping linear regression channel and continues to test its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains R1 255.00, with an initial stop-loss at R942.00 and a trailing stop at R1 076.00. | The share reached our profit target, and we closed the position. The move also brought the price back to test the November 2021 high, which is a key resistance area. |
| Time to exit | 11 February 2026 | 17 February 2026 | - |
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