Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R1 352 (reward to risk ratio: 2.5:1). We recommend a stop-loss at R1 038.
Naspers is a prominent multinational media group which has, over the last two decades, evolved from a traditional print media business in one country to a broad-based e-media company in multiple markets. Naspers' most notable investment is Prosus, which in turn has a large shareholding (~23%) in Chinese internet giant, Tencent. Prosus is focused on e-Commerce, Food Delivery, and Classifieds.
Technically, the emerging wave B recovery structure supports near-term upside potential, which makes the share attractive for a long position (see the notation and insert on the main chart). The price appears to be in wave B of the Elliott Wave corrective pattern (A-B-C), a counter-trend rebound after wave A. While momentum may improve and sentiment turn bullish, wave B is typically corrective, not trend-defining, with wave C likely to follow before a sustained move emerges.
The recent sequence of Heikin Ashi green candles signals sustained buying pressure and trend consistency. With minimal lower wicks, this pattern suggests shallow pullbacks and strong buyer control, reinforcing the likelihood of trend continuation unless a clear reversal emerges.
The share is trading just above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R1 108.67, a key long-term trend benchmark which supports bullish potential.
We recommend a medium capital allocation to this trade due to the associated moderate risk levels.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | NPN |
| Industry | Consumer Discretionary Distribution |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 941.58 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 61.27% |
| Return Year-to-date | 3.57% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 1 143.92 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 1 311.44 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 708.13 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The share price has delivered strong gains over the past year, as markets anticipate continued long-term growth momentum. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 18.50 | 5.00 | 5.98 | 6.95 |
| Growth (%) | -72.97 | 19.54 | 16.21 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | -72.97 | 19.54 | 16.21 | |
| Growth (%) | 16.54 | 28.38 | ||
| Forward PE (times) | 13.92 | 11.63 | 10.01 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.55 | |
| While full-year earnings growth forecasts remain subdued, against a strong base, growth is expected to rebound quickly over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | TKG SA - Buy (Profit take) |
HAR SA - Buy (Time exit) |
OUT SA - Buy (Time exit) |
MTM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 50.50 | 298.99 | 73.75 | 36.80 |
| Current Price | 59.55 | 372.53 | 71.60 | 38.57 |
| Movement | +17.9% | +24.6% | -2.9% | +4.8% |
| Comment | We suggest taking profit and closing the position. | The share reached its planned time-based exit and the position was closed. | The share reached its time-based exit and the positions were closed. | Price action remains constructive, with rising troughs and recurring upward impulses, while holding above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum has paused, posing a near-term risk. We maintain our profit target at R42.00 and have set an initial stop-loss at R35.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R36.50 |
| Time to exit | 3 March 2026 | 12 January 2026 | 11 December 2025 | 22 June 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | SHP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VOD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ANH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 271.74 | 94.83 | 132.90 | 1031.56 |
| Current Price | 272.81 | 100.63 | 144.25 | 1090.39 |
| Movement | +0.4% | +6.1% | +8.5% | +5.7% |
| Comment | The price action near the lower boundary of an upward-sloping linear regression channel remains constructive, while muted downside momentum supports the trade thesis despite the price holding below the 200-day simple moving average. We maintain a profit target at R307.00, with an initial stop-loss at R262.00, and a trailing stop at R262.50. | Based on historical patterns of strong follow-through after recovery years and an improving return profile into 2025, the outlook for continued upside in 2026 remains favourable. Price holds above the 200-day simple moving average, with stable upside momentum supporting the trade. We target R110.00, set an initial stop-loss at R89.00, , and a trailing stop at R95.00. | The share remains of interest as low volatility suggests stability and potential accumulation. The price has crossed above the 200-day simple moving average, with emerging upside momentum supporting the trade. We target R157.00, set a stop-loss at R123.00, and a trailing stop at R138.00. | The share remains of interest as the price continues to trade within an upward-sloping linear regression channel. Although it remains below the 200-day simple moving average and is therefore viewed as a counter-trend setup, improving upside momentum supports the trade. We target R1 255.00, set an initial stop-loss at R942.00, and a trailing stop at R1 001.00. |
| Time to exit | 11 March 2026 | 24 February 2026 | 11 February 2026 | 17 February 2026 |
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