By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
Harmony Gold is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world. The group's operations are located primarily on the Witwatersrand Basin in South Africa. The company also operates an open-pit mine in Papua New Guinea, is a significant operator of gold tailings retreatment facilities, and recently acquired copper assets in Australia.
Technically, per the Elliot Wave Analysis, the impulsive formation of wave B, backed by improving momentum and the likelihood of surpassing the previous wave five peak, points to renewed bullish intent and positions the share as an attractive opportunity for a long trade (see inset on the main chart).
An impulsive wave B often signals a strong corrective rebound within an A-B-C structure, driven by renewed buying momentum that briefly counters wave A's decline. It can mimic a primary uptrend with higher highs and lows, but if momentum pushes beyond the prior wave five peak, it may invalidate the count and signal the start of a new bullish cycle.
A high US dollar gold price supports a bullish outlook for Harmony Gold, which closely tracks gold as a leveraged proxy. The recent gold pullback appears to have been constructive, with recent activity suggesting re-accumulation before the next upward phase.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | HAR |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 198.02 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 80.82% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 109.04% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 310.96 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 388.05 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 150.50 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share is holding support above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), signalling that the long-term trend is upward. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | Y27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 23.37 | 50.13 | 58.03 | 57.33 |
| Growth (%) | 114.49 | 15.76 | -1.21 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 3.82 | 7.64 | 8.14 | 10.31 |
| Growth (%) | 99.87 | 6.65 | 26.61 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 6.20 | 5.35 | 5.42 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.46 | 2.62 | 3.32 | |
| Strong earnings growth is expected over the short-to-medium term, though it remains heavily dependent on the performance of the underlying gold price. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | INL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
OUT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CLS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 130.41 | 73.75 | 365.58 |
| Current Price | 132.04 | 71.48 | 356.20 |
| Movement | +1.2% | -3.1% | -2.6% |
| Comment | Price action near the lower two standard deviation range of the linear regression channel remains constructive. Holding above the 200-day SMA with easing downside momentum. We maintain the R149.00 target, with a trailing stop at R125.00. | A sequence of bullish swings remains encouraging despite a brief dip below the 200-day SMA. Weakening downside momentum supports the setup. We maintain a profit target of R87.00, with a stop-loss at R69.00. | An emerging Elliott Wave one structure remains notable, though the dip below the 200-day SMA and persistent downside momentum poses risks. We maintain a profit target of R413.00, with a stop-loss at R347.00. |
| Time to exit | 30 January 2026 | 11 December 2025 | 18 March 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | VOD - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ANH - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SHP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 132.90 | 1 031.56 | 278.33 |
| Current Price | 136.33 | 1 078.81 | 282.75 |
| Movement | +2.6% | +4.6% | +1.6% |
| Comment | The current low-volatility phase suggests stability and potential accumulation. Holding above the 200-day SMA with easing downside momentum, we maintain a profit target of R157.00, and a trailing stop at R127.00. | Price action remains well within the upward-sloping linear regression channel. Although below the 200-day SMA and positioned as a counter-trend trade, fading downside momentum supports the setup. We maintain a profit target of R1 255.00, with a trailing stop at R990.00. | Price action within a well-defined upward channel remains of interest. The share is holding slightly above its 200-day SMA, though fading upside momentum is a concern for the trade setup. We maintain a profit target of R312.00, with a trailing stop at R269.00. |
| Time to exit | 11 February 2026 | 17 February 2026 | 09 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | ARI - Stop Loss (Close the position) |
AEL - Buy Stop Loss (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | 184.00 | 19.03 |
| Current Price | 166.26 | 16.84 |
| Movement | -9.6% | -11.5% |
| Comment | The price triggered a stop-loss, resulting in the closure of the position. A successful retest and sustained hold above the 200-day simple moving average could prompt a re-entry the position in the near future. | The sudden drop to R16.56 triggered our stop-loss. We remain positive on the company's fundamentals and will reassess it for potential re-entry once technical conditions stabilise. |
| Time to exit | 17 December 2025 | 22 December 2025 |
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