By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Kroger Co. is a retail company that operates supermarkets and multi-department stores throughout the United States (US). The company is one of the largest retailers in the US and operates its supermarkets under a variety of local banner names in approximately 35 states and the District of Columbia.
Kroger also manufactures many of its own exclusive brands, which account for a significant portion of its sales. The company offers meat, seafood, bakery, dairy, frozen and many more household products. Furthermore, the company is expanding its larger marketplace store format, which features a wider array of general merchandise beyond groceries, to compete with super-regional rivals.
Technically, a developing rising wedge with a price near its lower boundary and potential for a final upward leg signals underlying buying pressure and presents a promising investment opportunity for the stock (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart). This pattern can offer bullish support when the price is positioned near the lower boundary of the formation, and the structure appears incomplete. The lower range often acts as dynamic support, attracting dip-buying as investors anticipate one final leg higher to complete the upper boundary of the wedge.
The recurring symmetry periods mark consolidations that often precede upward moves and the current higher trough near support supports a bullish bias for the stock. (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights the long-term price structure for KR which shows a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the presence of a durable upward trend.
Fading downside price momentum per the MACD histogram, as well as a bounce in the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, supports our bullish view.
We expect moderate fluctuations in the future and therefore suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $69.00.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | KR |
| Industry | Consumer staples distribution |
| Market Capital (USD) | 44.32 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 21.86% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 10.98% |
| Current Price (USD) | 66.88 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 74.90 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 54.88 |
| Financial Year End | February |
| The price is testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as support | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 4.47 | 4.80 | 5.27 | 5.58 |
| Growth (%) | 7.36 | 9.75 | 5.96 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 1.25 | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.52 |
| Growth (%) | 7.20 | 6.19 | 6.96 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 13.94 | 12.70 | 11.98 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.00 | 2.13 | 2.28 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive for the group, with momentum expected to improve over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | SYK - Stop loss (Close the position) |
MCD - Stop loss (Close the position) |
ETN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 380.86 | 299.17 | 334.86 |
| Current Price | 364.15 | 300.52 | 370.94 |
| Movement | -4.4% | +0.5% | +10.8% |
| Comment | The price breached our stop-loss level, and we closed the position. | Stock has reached our time to exit and we closed the position. |
A price that seems to be developing wave b of the Elliott Wave Price Theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Muted upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $395.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $347.00. |
| Time to exit | 28 April 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | KMI - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MSCI - Buy (Continue to hold) |
OTIS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 26.74 | 567.02 | 91.43 |
| Current Price | 28.01 | 569.11 | 90.40 |
| Movement | +4.7% | +0.4% | -1.1% |
| Comment |
The combination of a sustained uptrend in price and supportive AI-based forecasts remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $30.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $26.60. |
The formation of a symmetrical triangle, coupled with the potential for an upside breakout that aligns with prevailing market momentum, remains of interest. Continue to test its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum regained some strength and is supportive.
Our profit is $651.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $564.00. |
The formation of a developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $100.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $88.00. |
| Time to exit | 7 November 2025 | 9 January 2026 | 17 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | ADTN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 99.28 |
| Current Price | 8.85 |
| Movement | -4.6% |
| Comment | <
The ability of the price to hold firm around historically active trading ranges remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. The start of downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is $11.50 with a trailing stop-loss at $8.50 |
| Time to exit | 22 December 2025 |
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