By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Sanlam is a leading financial services group in South Africa. The company specialises in insurance, financial planning, retirement, trust, wills, short-term insurance, asset and risk management, capital market activities, investment, and wealth management.
Listed on the JSE, AX2 and the Namibian stock exchange, Sanlam has been operating for more than 100 years with operations in ~44 countries. The group is highly regarded from a qualitative perspective and is well-diversified from a geographic and product standpoint. Sanlam boasts a strong balance sheet with more than adequate reserves.
Technically, the unfolding impulsive wave structure (see the number notation on the main chart), with its strong directional bias and reinforcement of bullish sentiment, makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position. Elliot Wave movements appear to be unfolding as an impulsive wave, indicating strong momentum and investor confidence. Impulsive waves typically align with the dominant trend, signalling potential for further upside.
The strong seasonal pattern from October through December, with historically higher average monthly returns, supports a bullish case for the share as well (see the insert). From September, Sanlam's average monthly returns have constantly turned positive as the price starts building momentum from September through to December. Investors often anticipate this seasonality, using it as confirmation to hold or accumulate positions into the final quarter.
Upside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator, supports our bullish stance.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R93.50.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | SLM |
| Industry | Insurance |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 191.39 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 7.56% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 10.05% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 90.40 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 92.57 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 66.61 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains above its 200-week and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of R85.88. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 8.77 | 8.50 | 9.20 | 10.19 |
| Growth (%) | -3.12 | 8.26 | 10.80 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 4.45 | 4.85 | 5.10 | 5.56 |
| Growth (%) | 9.01 | 5.05 | 9.12 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 10.64 | 9.83 | 8.87 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 5.37 | 5.64 | 6.15 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive, with strong momentum expected over the next few financial period. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | RDF - Time to exit (Close the position) |
BID - Time to exit (Close the position) |
BVT - Time to exit (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 4.69 | 458.43 | 239.73 |
| Current Price | 5.06 | 461.26 | 236.90 |
| Movement | +7.9% | +0.6% | -1.2% |
| Comment | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. |
| Time to exit | 1 September 2025 | 1 September 2025 | 1 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 233.57 | 32.60 |
| Current Price | 14.43 | 248.86 | 34.05 |
| Movement | +9.2% | +6.5% | +4.4% |
| Comment |
A price trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum halted, which is a concern.
Our profit target is R16.00 with a trailing stop loss at R12.85. |
A price holding above key support remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum continues to be supportive.
Our profit target is R261.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R238.00. |
The price is developing a symmetrical triangle pattern, which remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target at R37.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R32.50. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 19 January 2026 | 29 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | CFR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 2 980.00 |
| Current Price | 3 106.00 |
| Movement | +4.2% |
| Comment |
The formation of wave one out of the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains just below its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R3 517.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R2 892.00. |
| Time to exit | 26 April 2026 |
FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.
