By Peet Serfontein & Pritu Makan
Richemont is Swiss luxury goods holding company that owns several of the world's leading brands in the field of luxury goods such as jewellery, luxury watches and writing instruments, with a view of long-term development of successful international brands. Brands include Cartier, Alfred Dunhill, Montblanc, Lancel, and Van Cleef & Arpels.
While recent global uncertainties have resulted in sector-wide weakness across the luxury space, the jewellery category, to which Richemont is over indexed, has been resilient and remains a standout performer. In addition, high-end luxury brands are best placed to defend margins by passing on US tariff costs to consumers via price hikes.
Technically, the formation of a Wave one trough per the Elliot Wave Theory (see the left insert on the main chart), signals easing selling pressure and the potential for renewed accumulation, which makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position.
The emergence of the latest green Heikin Ashi candle, signalling easing downside pressure and renewed buying interest, supports the bullish case for the share (see right insert on main chart).
The price remains above its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), but below its 200-day SMA. The price is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which provides a constructive backdrop for the share.
Fading downside momentum, following a trough in negative pressure as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, lends support for the trade setup.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | CFR |
| Industry | Luxury Goods |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 1.75 trillion |
| One Year Total Return | 5.87% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 7.35% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 2 980.00 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 3 843.20 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 2 309.96 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The share has begun to recover from a recent sell-off, and technical indicators are supportive of renewed upside. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (EUR) | 6.39 | 6.03 | 6.90 | 7.83 |
| Growth (%) | -5.67 | 14.45 | 13.59 | |
| Dividend Per Share (EUR) | 3.00 | 3.26 | 3.63 | 3.99 |
| Growth (%) | 8.67 | 11.32 | 10.06 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 24.04 | 21.00 | 18.49 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.25 | 2.51 | 2.76 | |
| Despite short-term headwinds associated with heighted uncertainty in the global trading environment, earnings growth is expected to be solid over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SBK - Buy (Continue to hold) |
DCP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 233.57 | 32.60 |
| Current Price | 14.97 | 255.00 | 34.27 |
| Movement | +13.2% | +9.2% | +5.1% |
| Comment |
The share is trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains at R16.00 with a stop-loss at R13.50. |
The price is holding above key support. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. We maintain our profit target at R261 with a stop-loss at R244. |
The price is developing a symmetrical triangle pattern. Crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside momentum is a positive. Our profit target remains at R37 with a stop-loss at R32.60. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 19 January 2026 | 29 October 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | TBS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
STXFIN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VAL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 304.50 | 21.75 | 850.00 |
| Current Price | 318.83 | 22.20 | 855.00 |
| Movement | +4.7% | +2.1% | +0.6% |
| Comment |
Price aligned with a rising Volume Price Trend (VPT), backed by sustained accumulation and buying interest, keeps the potential for further upside after consolidation in focus. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum continues to support the trade. Our profit target remains at R345 with a stop-loss at R303. |
The price remains above major support. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum continues to support the trade. We maintain our profit target at R25 with a stop-loss at R21. |
The price is developing a rounding top pattern. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target remains at R1 063 with a stop-loss at R747. |
| Time to exit | 27 October 2025 | 15 September 2025 | 10 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | RDF - Hold (Approaching time exit) |
BID - Hold (Approaching time exit) |
BVT - Hold (Approaching time exit) |
COH - Time Exit (Close the position) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 4.69 | 458.43 | 239.73 | 8.82 |
| Current Price | 4.98 | 471.37 | 245.42 | 8.21 |
| Movement | +6.2% | +2.8% | +2.4% | -6.9% |
| Comment |
The price is in a developing triangle pattern. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains at R5.30 with a stop-loss at R4.75. |
The combination of a sustained bounce off the lower one standard deviation band, ongoing support from the broader upward trend, and signs of renewed buying interest remain of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade. Our profit target remains at R528 with a stop-loss at R444. |
The price is in the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern. Remains below its 200-day SMA, marking this as a counter-trend setup. Upside momentum regained strength. We maintain our profit target at R274 with a stop-loss at R226. |
The share reached our time-exit, and the position was subsequently closed. |
| Time to exit | 1 September 2025 | 30 August 2025 | 1 September 2025 |
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