By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Costco Wholesale Corporation is a membership warehouse club that sells a variety of food, automotive supplies, toys, hardware, sporting goods, jewellery, electronics, apparel, health, and beauty aids, as well as other goods with a robust international footprint. The company serves customers through its warehouses and e-commerce sites.
Founded in 1983, the company has grown into one of the world's largest retailers, offering a limited selection of bulk, high-quality products - both well-known brands and its private label, Kirkland Signature at attractive prices through tight markup controls and efficient operations.
Technically, a developing symmetrical triangle pattern in an uptrend presents a promising investment opportunity (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart). This pattern within an uptrend can support a bullish case as it often represents a period of consolidation where neither buyers nor sellers have clear control - highlighted in a price that creates a series of lower highs and higher lows, compressing into a tighter range. The contraction of the price range can build suppressed buying pressure, and a breakout to the upside.
The price in an upward sloping linear regression channel pattern also supports a bullish bias (see the insert). This pattern illustrates a sustained long-term uptrend, with the price consistently moving within and often testing the upper half of the channel. As the share price frequently trades near or above the regression line, indicating persistent buying interest and strong underlying demand, it further reinforces the bullish stance.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | COST |
| Industry | Consumer Staples and Distribution |
| Market Capital (USD) | 433.19 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 13.52% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 7.01% |
| Current Price (USD) | 977 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 1 078 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 8.56 |
| Financial Year End | September |
| The price is re-testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 16.56 | 18.13 | 20.04 | 22.11 |
| Growth (%) | 9.49 | 10.53 | 10.35 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 19.36 | 4.79 | 5.31 | 7.13 |
| Growth (%) | -75.26 | 10.86 | 34.34 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 53.87 | 48.74 | 44.17 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.73 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | MSI - Time Exit (Close the position) |
ETN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ABBV - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 422.93 | 334.86 | 185.72 |
| Current Price | 471.20 | 363.30 | 198.64 |
| Movement | +11.4% | +8.5% | +7.0% |
| Comment | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. |
A price that seems to be developing wave b of the Elliott Wave price theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is $395 with a trailing stop-loss at $339. |
A price in an upward sloping inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $216 and a trailing stop-loss at $177.60. |
| Time to exit | 28 April 2026 | 20 August 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | MCD - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SKY - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ADP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 299.17 | 380.86 | 308.64 |
| Current Price | 301.64 | 376.61 | 299.63 |
| Movement | +0.8% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
| Comment | A well-defined inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Continues to test its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive. |
Strong seasonal strength in the price remains of interest. Continues to test its 200-day SMA. The start of downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is $428 with a trailing stop-loss at $365. |
A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Downside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is $336 with a trailing stop-loss at $298. |
| Time to exit | 1 October 2025 | 28 October 2025 | 30 September 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | MET - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 79.32 |
| Current Price | 76.56 |
| Movement | -3.5% |
| Comment |
A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Muted downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $89 with a trailing stop-loss at $74. |
| Time to exit | 29 August 2025 |
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