By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Curro Holdings is an education group that develops, acquires, and manages private schools in South Africa. The company operates schools that offer education from preschool to grade 12, aiming to provide a balance between academic, sport and cultural activities.
The group has grown substantially and offers a range of educational models, including Curro, Curro Academy, Meridian and Select schools. The company's core focus is to deliver high-quality, value-based education from the early childhood development phase through to matriculation while addressing the demand for affordable quality private schooling.
Technically, the price is at a key distribution level which makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). The histogram highlights the frequency distribution of price levels and suggests that the share is trading within a zone of strong historical support. A rise in the price from this base could trigger renewed buying interest, supporting the bullish stance.
Sideways consolidation also supports the bullish case for the share (see the grey rectangle on the main chart). This area can be regarded as a bullish support zone, especially when it occurs after an upward trend, as it suggests that the share is absorbing previous gains without substantial selling pressure. The balance between demand and supply sets precedents for the next leg higher.
Upside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator, supports our bullish stance.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R9.20.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | COH |
| Industry | Consumer Service |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 5.08 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -18.58% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 29.69% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 9.00 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 13.79 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 7.96 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price is below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of R11.45, suggesting that selling pressure is fading and buyers are gradually taking charge. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 0.83 | 0.88 | 1.01 | |
| Growth (%) | 5.78 | 14.92 | 18.33 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Growth (%) | - | 14.77 | 48.02 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 10.25 | 8.92 | 7.54 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.96 | 2.24 | 3.32 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive, with momentum expected to improve over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | QLT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ABG - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BID - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 35.27 | 171.50 | 458.43 |
| Current Price | 37.85 | 177.00 | 470.96 |
| Movement | +7.3% | +3.2% | +2.7% |
| Comment |
The start of Wave 5 out of the Elliott Wave theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Upside momentum halted which is a concern.
Our profit target is R41.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R34.50. |
A favourable peer comparison for the share remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R200.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R161.00. |
The combination of a sustained bounce off the lower one standard deviation band, ongoing support from the broader upward trend and signs of renewed buying interest remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R528.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R444.00. |
| Time to exit | 14 July 2025 | 14 July 2025 | 30 August 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
WBO - Buy (Continue to hold) |
STXFIN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 13.22 | 184.64 | 21.75 |
| Current Price | 13.43 | 183.47 | 21.57 |
| Movement | +1.6% | -0.6% | -0.8% |
| Comment |
The price is in one of the highest price bins of the price distribution analysis. Crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. Muted upside momentum is somewhat supportive.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12.00. |
Significant volume accumulation at lower price levels combined with the current price trading above these high-activity zones remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA - the trade is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Fading downside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R215 with a trailing stop-loss at R173. |
A price that remains above major support remains of interest. Remains just above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum regained some strength which is supportive.
Our profit target is R25.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R20.50. |
| Time to exit | 17 November 2025 | 22 August 2025 | 15 September 2025 |
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