By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
PayPal is a leading provider of online payment technology, enabling individuals and merchants to conduct electronic transactions and transfer money quickly and securely. In addition to the PayPal brand, the company also operates Venmo, Xoom, Braintree and Zettle.
Technically, a price that remains above support presents a promising investment opportunity (see the black trendline on the main chart).
When the price consistently holds above a well-established support level, it is viewed as a bullish signal, indicating that buyers are stepping in when the price nears the support zone and effectively absorbing selling pressure. This repeated defence of support reflects underlying demand and growing investor confidence, suggesting the market may be building a base for a potential upward move. Sustained trading above support frequently results in the formation of higher lows, a key characteristic of an emerging uptrend. When accompanied by rising volume or positive momentum indicators, this may signal the potential for an upside breakout.
The price seems to be in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff price cycle, characterised by trading in a defined range. Volume patterns during accumulation often show increases on up-moves and declines on down-moves, indicating that selling pressure is easing.
The start of upside price momentum, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, further supports a bullish stance. The recent upward trajectory of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator reinforces a change in trend direction, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing in line with price gains.
Please note you can enter this trade on the JSE by purchasing the FNB ETN that tracks the underlying performance of this stock. PPETNC offers full exposure to rand exchange rate movements and PPETNQ removes currency exposure.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | PYPL |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 72.71 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 15.42% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -12.41% |
| Current Price (USD) | 74.76 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 93.66 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 55.85 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price is approaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), supporting a bull case for the stock. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 4.65 | 5.07 | 5.63 | 6.43 |
| Growth (%) | 9.10 | 11.02 | 14.19 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Growth (%) | ||||
| Forward PE (times) | 14.74 | 13.27 | 11.62 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| High-single-digit earnings growth is expected over FY25, accelerating into the low double-digits thereafter. The stock holds a Beta of 1.208, which indicates that it is more volatile than the overall stock market. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | PANW US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SW US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
CTAS US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 173.55 | 39.56 | 205.84 |
| Current | 195.55 | 43.81 | 222.22 |
| Movement | +12.9% | +10.7% | +8.0% |
|
The recent trough in the stock's price continues to attract attention. Testing its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum remains supportive.
Our profit target remains at $228, with a trailing stop-loss at $152. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025. |
A trough in the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target remains at $49.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $42.00. Exit the trade around 20 August 2025. |
A bullish pennant pattern in the price continues to attract attention. Remains just above its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is maintained at $241, with a trailing stop-loss is established at the $193.50. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | DECK US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ABBV US - Buy (Continue to hold) |
LULU US - Stop Loss (Close the Position) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 109.15 | 185.72 | 310.61 |
| Current | 110.00 | 189.50 | 265.27 |
| Movement | +0.8% | +2.0% | -14.6% |
|
A trough per the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average reinforcing a counter-trend strategy. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is maintained at $144.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $95.00 Exit the trade on or around 24 June 2025. |
The price in an upward sloping inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $216.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $174.00. Exit the trade on or around 20 August 2025. |
The share price breached our stop-loss level, and we closed the position. |
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