By Peet Serfontein & Sithembile Bopela
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R274 (reward/risk ratio: 2.5:1). We recommend a stop-loss at R226.
The Bidvest Group is a service, trading and distribution company operating mainly in South Africa with a growing presence in the United Kingdom (UK). The company specialises in services including cleaning, security, landscaping, indoor plants and flowers, and travel; Private sector freight management; Commercial, which involves the manufacturing and distribution of electrical products, office stationery, office furniture, packaging closures and catering equipment; and Automotive retail, among others.
Bidvest is a well-run business with a committed and highly regarded management team. The company is diversified across both cyclical and non-cyclical segments and boasts a strong balance sheet position.
Technically, the stock seems to be in the accumulation phase out of the Wyckoff Price Cycle that makes for an attractive investment opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). This phase usually follows a downtrend and is characterised by the share trading within a defined range, accompanied by declining volume and volatility—an indication that selling pressure is diminishing.
The start of upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, as well as a trough in the Coppock Curve, supports the bullish undertone.
The share price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but above its 200-week SMA (an important long-term trend indicator), which also supports the bullish bias.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R247.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | BVT |
| Industry | Capital Goods |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 80.02 billion |
| One Year Total Return | -5.65% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -9.10% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 235.15 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 304.21 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 202.01 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share price has made a meaningful bounce from a recent low, with several technical indicators pointing to further strength near term. Expect moderate volatility in the price. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 19.08 | 19.80 | 21.77 | 24.02 |
| Growth (%) | 3.77 | 9.95 | 10.38 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 9.14 | 9.33 | 10.14 | 11.26 |
| Growth (%) | 2.11 | 8.67 | 10.99 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.88 | 10.80 | 9.79 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.97 | 4.31 | 4.79 | |
| Decent earnings growth is expected over the forecast horizon. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | MRP - BUY (Continue to hold) |
NTC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
GRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 219.84 | 14.14 | 13.22 |
| Current | 250.56 | 14.42 | 13.18 |
| Movement | +14% | +2% | -0.3% |
|
The start of wave five in the Elliott wave price theory remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R267 with a trailing stop-loss at R232. Exit the trade on 9 June 2025. |
A double-bottom pattern in the price action remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.70. Exit the trade on 21 July 2025. |
The price is at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis. Continues to test its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade strategy.
Our profit target is at R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12. Exit the trade on 17 November 2025. |
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