By Thanda Sithole
Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 2.5% y/y in December 2025, reflecting a rebound from a 2.4% decline (revised from -2.7%) in November. Seasonally-adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, declined by 1.2% m/m, less pronounced than the 5.4% monthly decline recorded in November.
Overall, mining output declined by 0.5% q/q in 4Q25, underscoring a retreat from the quarterly growth momentum that prevailed in the two consecutive quarters prior to 4Q25. This suggests that the mining sector dragged GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025.
Outlook
Mining output growth was flat (0%) in 2025, marking a moderate slowdown from the 0.6% growth recorded in 2024. Growth performance across the twelve divisions was mixed (See Figure 1), with gains recorded in iron ore (3.0%), manganese ore (5.0%),chromium ore (4.0%), nickel (2.5%), diamonds (4.0%), building materials (2.9%) and other metallic minerals (17.2%).
Negative growth in 2025 was recorded in coal (-0.6%), copper (-6.0%), platinum group metals (-4.4%), gold (-1.7%) and other non-metallic minerals (-2.0%).
We expect a modest acceleration in mining production in 2026, underpinned by favourable commodity prices, a stable global growth environment, and easing energy and logistics constraints. However, continued geopolitical tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty and tariffs, could constrain mining activity.
Selected sector analysis
In December, eight of the twelve mining divisions recorded increased production (see Figure 1), with iron ore rising by 19.0% y/y, contributing 2.7-percentage points (ppts) to total mining output growth. Manganese ore increased by 40.4%, adding 2.4ppts.
