By Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 4.4% y/y in July, accelerating from 2.5% (previously 2.4%) in June. This marks a solid start to 3Q25, following a decent contribution to 2Q25 GDP growth. The outcome was stronger than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3.4%. Seasonally adjusted, mining output also rose by 1.0% m/m, a fifth consecutive monthly increase, providing early signs of continued momentum in GDP growth.
Outlook
The ongoing recovery in mining activity is encouraging, particularly against the backdrop of subdued domestic growth and elevated global trade uncertainty. If sustained, this momentum would support GDP growth. However, the weakness recorded in the first half of the year suggests mining output could still contract by close to 1% in 2025. Year-to-date, output is down by 1.9%, underscoring reduced activity in key sectors such as platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, and coal. While favourable terms of trade and US tariff exemptions on certain critical minerals may provide some support, soft external demand and persistent uncertainty, should keep global growth sluggish. Domestic structural reforms to improve port and rail logistics will be critical to boosting medium- to long-term mining activity.
Selected sector analysis
Eight of the twelve mining divisions recorded higher production in July, with mixed outcomes across key sectors such as PGMs, iron ore, manganese, gold, and coal (see Figure 2):
