By Thanda Sithole
2Q25 QLFS: Employment gains some momentum, but vulnerabilities persist
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a modest quarter-on-quarter (q/q) increase of 19,236 in total employment in 2Q25, following a decline of 290,575 in the previous quarter. Year-on-year (y/y), employment rose by 154,169 to reach 16,806,502.
The level of unemployment increased by 139,751 q/q (but was lower by 16,396 y/y), bringing the total number of unemployed individuals to 8,367,429. As a result, the official unemployment rate increased by 0.3-percentage points (ppts) to 33.2%. The absorption rate decreased further by 0.1ppts to 40.2%, suggesting a moderate deterioration in the economy's ability to create jobs during the reference quarter. At this rate, a significant proportion of the working-age population is still left out of the formal economy, emphasising the need for faster and labour-intensive growth.
Youth unemployment remains critically high. The jobless rate for the 15-24 age group stood at 62.2% in 2Q25, compared with 62.4% in 1Q25 (and 60.8% in 2Q24). For the 25-34 age group, it was 40.5%, compared with 40.4% in 1Q25 (and 41.7% in 2Q24). This underscores the urgent need to accelerate pro-growth structural reforms that can drive sustainable and inclusive economic expansion.
Sectoral employment insights
Outlook
The improvement in employment in 2Q25 aligns with expectations of further GDP growth. However, the persistently high unemployment rate highlights the continued vulnerability and weakness of the labour market. This is further compounded by heightened uncertainty over the potential employment impact of US tariffs on sectors such as agriculture, automotive, machinery and equipment manufacturing, and mining (excluding critical minerals producers). Over the medium term, sustained structural reforms and accelerated efforts to diversify export markets should help support job creation.
Note: Stats SA plans on revising their questionnaire ahead of the 3Q25 publication. This is an effort to adapt the survey to a rising trend of informal economic participation and dynamic labour market trends - which have been exacerbated by the pandemic. In line with this, people who are not in the labour market will not be assumed to be economically inactive and the questionnaire may consider different forms of employment agreements and benefits. The survey may also remove restrictions such as the age limit of 64 years, considering that people are working longer. We look forward to these adjustments and how they bring us closer to a fair reflection of the labour market in SA. Labour data is key to policymaking and business strategy and should be in line with international best practise in order to be considered credible and comparable.
