By Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) remained weak into the start of 2Q25, with output contracting sharply by 7.7% y/y in April following a 2.5% decline in March (revised from -2.8%). This marked the sixth consecutive month of annual decline. The outcome was worse than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 4.0% decline and largely reflected the disruptive impact of breakdowns and third-party supply issues affecting Platinum Group Metals (PGMs). Seasonally adjusted mining output rose modestly by 0.6% m/m, a moderation from the 3.6% monthly increase recorded in March.
Outlook
Near-term mining activity remains under pressure from slowing global growth and persistent global uncertainty. Although output edged up by 0.4% in 2024, year-to-date performance has been disappointing, with output down 5.4% in the first four months compared to the same period last year. This points to a negligible or potentially negative contribution from the mining sector to 2025 GDP growth, reinforcing our view of downside risks to the economic outlook. The medium-term outlook should be supported by ongoing infrastructure reforms, particularly in energy and logistics. However, how the global economy evolves will also be critical in determining the mining sector's response.
Selected sector analysis
Seven out of twelve mining divisions recorded annual declines in April. Among the five major divisions:
On the upside:
