Thanda Sithole
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 4.7% y/y in September, a marked improvement from the 0.3% y/y increase in August. The outturn surpassed Reuters consensus, which anticipated modest growth of 2.2% y/y. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which aligns with the official quarterly GDP calculation, rose by 3.8% m/m following a 3.3% m/m gain in August. After a 0.4% decline in 2Q24, mining output rebounded with a 1.0% increase in 3Q24, indicating a positive contribution to GDP growth.
Outlook
Year-to-date (January to September), mining output has increased by 0.7%, a notable yet moderate improvement from the 0% growth in 2023 (revised from a previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction). While mining recovery benefits from easing energy constraints and gradually stabilising logistics, we anticipate a moderate pace of growth in the near term due to a challenging external demand environment. Accelerating reforms in ports and rail infrastructure will be crucial for boosting productivity and profitability in the mining sector over the medium term.
Selected sector analysis
The stronger-than-expected increase in mining production was broad-based, with growth recorded in ten out of 12 sectors. Focusing on the key mining divisions:
On the downside:
