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SPM Best Ideas - Offshore - November 2025

By Chantal Marx, Pritu Makan, Sithembile Bopela, Zimele Mbanjwa, Motheo Tlhagale, Khumbulani Kunene

Salesforce (CRM US)

Salesforce is a cloud-based software company that designs and develops enterprise solutions. The company offers a leading customer relationship management (CRM) service to businesses worldwide, providing a complete suite of applications designed to help businesses manage customer relationships, automate processes, and unify data across sales, service, marketing, commerce, and IT on a single integrated platform.

  • The main stumbling block Salesforce and its peers have been facing over the last year or so has been the perception that its offering can be easily displaced by new developers utilising the power of generative AI.
  • The reality is, however, that AI is entrenched in Salesforce's strategy. Salesforce strategically offers a robust AI CRM platform, enhanced with AI and data, that offers a shared view of customer information, allowing companies to build better relationships and drive growth.
  • While open-source tools used in isolation make sense for individual personal use or even for small businesses, it does not necessarily make sense for enterprises. Free tools are marred by challenges like copyright and right of use concerns, making it difficult to justify a move away from the tools Salesforce offers currently.
  • Salesforce continues to be a market leader in CRM solutions due to its comprehensive platforms that helps businesses of all sizes manage customer relationships, automate processes, and unify data.
  • Growing demand for customer service software products, particularly as the shift towards digital operating models persists, is encouraging while the company continues to benefit from its well-diversified footprint, providing a more defensive edge.

In 2Q26 to the end of July, top- and bottom-line metrics saw double-digit growth, and management's outlook remained positive. The company continues to strengthen its data foundation, governance and integration capabilities following its acquisition of AI- powered cloud data management company, Informatica, earlier in the year. Furthermore, acquisitions in recent years have started bearing positive results.

Salesforce is trading on a forward PE of 19.6 times, a slight discount relative to its long-term history.

NextEra (NEE US)

NextEra is a leading energy company specialising in electric power and energy infrastructure development. The company's portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, including industry leading wind and solar power and battery storage. The group's core businesses include Florida Power & Light Company (FPL), America's largest electric utility by retail electricity produced and sold, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), a major developer of energy infrastructure with 20% share of the US renewables market. This dual structure gives it both stable cash flows from regulated operations and high growth potential from renewables.

  • US electricity demand has entered a period of rapid and sustained growth, with forecasts of a 25% increase in electricity demand by 2030, to keep up demand for industrial production, increased electrification, and rapid expansion of data centres due to AI, hyperscale cloud capacity and chip factories.
  • As such, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI super cycle, favouring renewables and battery storage solutions, with strong AI partnerships with Google and the global AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP) to invest in and expand AI infrastructure including diverse energy solutions for AI data centres.
  • NEER achieved a strong quarter of new renewables and storage origination in 3Q25 and is well positioned to meet its development target of up to 46.5 gigawatts (GW) by 2027. During the quarter, the unit added 3GW to its backlog, amounting to ~30GW year to date, of which 12% is intended to serve technology and data centre customers.
  • The company is also pursuing new natural gas generation through partnerships and strategic acquisitions of existing gas- generation assets with near-term contracting potential. This may benefit from reshoring, amid increased domestic energy demand as industrial and manufacturing production may ramp up to meet US policy demands currently.

Downside risks to our view include policy changes, specifically the potential repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). While a complete repeal of the Act remains a low probability outcome, any roll back or delay in clean energy incentives, including tax credits, will negatively impact energy supply chains in the medium term, specifically smaller clean-energy rivals. However, as the global clean energy transition remains underway, NEER's scale and pipeline progress bode well for further potential upside and market share gains in a renewables pull-forward environment.

On a forward PE multiple of ~22 times, the company trades at premium relative to its peers but an attractive discount to its own long-term average rating.

Axon Enterprise (AXON US)

Axon is a leading US-based public safety technology company which provides an integrated ecosystem of conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, along with body-worn and in-car cameras, sensors, drones, robotics, and cloud-based software solutions for evidence management, real-time operations, and AI-driven insights. Axon serves law enforcement, government agencies, enterprises, and communities across more than 100 countries, aiming to enhance safety, accountability, and efficiency through connected devices and advanced digital platforms.

  • The company's stock recently derated following the release of softer-than-expected 3Q26 earnings. The group sustained margin pressures that mostly stemmed from a heavier tilt toward hardware sales, which typically carry lower profitability compared to software subscriptions. External cost headwinds, including tariffs and supply-chain expenses, also compounded the squeeze.
  • Still, revenue was strong across the company's segments, with Software and Services up 41% y/y supported by the adoption of premium features and an expanding user base, while Connected Devices were up 24% y/y driven by positive demand trends in flagship products like the TASER 10 and Axon Body 4, as well as platform solutions like counter-drone and VR training. Moreover, the group reported that future contracted bookings rose 39% y/y to $11.4 billion, annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 41% y/y to $1.3 billion, with net revenue retention (NRR) at 124%.
  • Guidance for the top line was also raised, and management anticipates record bookings in 4Q25 and for FY26, driven by expanding adoption of AI-powered solutions, contribution from recent acquisitions (Prepared and Carbyne), and strong momentum in international markets and enterprise segments.

Axon sees multi-year tailwinds from AI, cloud migration, and integrated ecosystem offerings. We agree that the total addressable market for the company is substantial and together with the strong revenue performance and future-facing metrics (bookings, ARR, and NRR), they make for a continued attractive growth picture. Recent price action has derated the stock to what we believe to be a fairer entry point.

Axon is trading on a forward PE 75 times - in line with its long-term valuation range. The sell-side is still overwhelmingly positive on the company, with an aggregated target price of $810 - 45.5% above current levels.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK US)

Founded in 1774, Birkenstock is best known for inventing the contoured footbed, a design that has become synonymous with comfort and orthopaedic support. Over the centuries, Birkenstock has evolved from a family-run workshop into a global "super brand". Its products span entry-level to luxury price points, appealing to a broad demographic while maintaining a core focus on function, quality, and tradition.

  • Birkenstock's brand equity is supported by its positioning as a "conscious lifestyle" brand, with a product universe that appeals to a wide range of consumers and a clear purpose centred on foot health and natural movement. This underpins resilient demand and supports premium pricing across geographies and channels.
  • The company follows a dual-channel approach, with both B2B (wholesale) and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels delivering robust growth in recent years.
  • The company has demonstrated the ability to drive high-single-digit unit growth and mid-single-digit increases in average selling prices (ASP). Indeed, pricing power remains a key strength, with the company able to implement sales price adjustments that more than offset input cost inflation, supporting gross margin expansion.
  • The balance sheet has improved considerably since the business' exit from private equity ownership. This is expected to continue and, supported by solid cash generation, will allow a step up in shareholder cash returns medium term.

Birkenstock's third-quarter results to the end of September were strong, with revenue up 16% in constant currencies. Growth was broad-based, with double-digit increases across all segments and geographies. Closed-toe footwear continued to gain share, driving ASP higher and supporting top-line momentum.

At the time, management reaffirmed guidance for FY25, expecting revenue growth at the high end of the 15% to 17% constant currency growth range. The business noted headwinds including currency impacts and tariffs but nevertheless kept its medium- term margin outlook in check.

On current multiples, Birkenstock trades at a significant discount to its average rating since listing and a discount to peers despite its superior growth profile, brand strength, and robust margin structure.

L'Oreal (OR FP)

Founded in 1909 by Eugene Schueller, L'Oreal has evolved from a pioneering French hair dye business into one of the world's leading beauty companies, with a presence in over 150 countries and a growing portfolio of brands spanning mass market, luxury, professional, and dermatological segments. The group's business model is built on relentless innovation, global scale, and a multi- channel distribution strategy encompassing e-commerce, mass retail, department stores, pharmacies, salons, and travel retail.

  • L'Oreal holds market leading positions in various categories and is a proven innovator over time - animating the market and driving demand for new and additional products.
  • The sector is quite defensive - per the well documented "lipstick effect" theory - consumers tend to indulge in small luxuries like make-up, fragrance and skin and haircare even when economic conditions are challenging. While the sector is not immune to broader downturns - it does tend to be impacted less than other areas of the market.
  • Nearshoring has been a strategy for the company for some time. This makes it less exposed to tariffs and trade war-related disruptions. For example, in the US, only 15% of what is sold is imported - this is mainly Luxe products that by design are made in their origin markets.
  • The company boasts superior margins and has a proven track record of generating high returns on assets, equity and returns on invested capital (ROIC). The ROIC has consistently been well above the company's weighted average cost of capital over time.
  • Strategic M&A continues to enhance the portfolio, with the recent acquisitions of Color Wow (professional haircare), Medik8 (UK-based skincare), and Dr.G (Korean skincare), as well as the announced partnership with Kering, including the acquisition of Creed and new luxury beauty licences.

L'Oreal's third-quarter results to September 2025 confirmed the group's ability to deliver resilient, broad-based growth in a challenging macro environment. Like-for-like sales growth accelerated to +4.9% in Q3, with all divisions contributing and momentum improving in both North America and mainland China two of the group's largest markets.

We continue to view L'Oreal as the structural winner in global beauty, with further upside as luxury and emerging markets recover and the benefits of recent acquisitions and partnerships are realised.

L'Oreal's valuation remains at a premium to the sector, reflecting its unrivalled scale, innovation, and brand equity, as well as its consistent ability to compound growth and defend margins through pricing power and mix improvement. The stock's valuation relative to its own history remains depressed, however.

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