Flash Notes
Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026
Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% y/y in January from 3.6% in December. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.3% and the market expectation of 3.4%. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly driven by core and food price pressures which were mitigated by lower fuel prices.
18 February 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales exceed expectations in November
Retail sales growth accelerated to 3.5% y/y in November, up from 3.0% in October (revised from 2.9%), surpassing market expectations for a 2.5% increase. On a month-on-month basis, sales volumes rose 0.6%, slightly slower than the 1.0% recorded previously. This outcome bodes well for 4Q25 GDP growth. Activity in November was likely supported by Black Friday related promotions, which most retailers spread across the month.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
3Q25 QLFS: Employment momentum maintained
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a robust quarter-on-quarter (q/q) increase of 248 000 in total employment in 3Q25, following an increase of 19 236 in the previous quarter. At 17 055 000, total employment was 109 000 higher than in the corresponding quarter last year, reflecting a resilient labour market even in a low-growth environment.
11 November 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation softer in August
Headline inflation was 3.3% y/y in August, down from 3.5% in July. The print was below our expectation of 3.5%. Monthly pressure was -0.1%, dictated by fuel as well as food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) deflation.
17 September 2025
Flash Notes
June manufacturing output encouraging but challenges remain
Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 1.9% y/y in June, after increasing by 0.7% (previously 0.5%) in May. Prior to May and June, manufacturing recorded an average monthly annual decline of 2.6% between November 2024 and April 2025, reflecting subdued domestic demand.
11 August 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026
Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% y/y in January from 3.6% in December. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.3% and the market expectation of 3.4%. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly driven by core and food price pressures which were mitigated by lower fuel prices.
18 February 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales exceed expectations in November
Retail sales growth accelerated to 3.5% y/y in November, up from 3.0% in October (revised from 2.9%), surpassing market expectations for a 2.5% increase. On a month-on-month basis, sales volumes rose 0.6%, slightly slower than the 1.0% recorded previously. This outcome bodes well for 4Q25 GDP growth. Activity in November was likely supported by Black Friday related promotions, which most retailers spread across the month.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
3Q25 QLFS: Employment momentum maintained
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a robust quarter-on-quarter (q/q) increase of 248 000 in total employment in 3Q25, following an increase of 19 236 in the previous quarter. At 17 055 000, total employment was 109 000 higher than in the corresponding quarter last year, reflecting a resilient labour market even in a low-growth environment.
11 November 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation softer in August
Headline inflation was 3.3% y/y in August, down from 3.5% in July. The print was below our expectation of 3.5%. Monthly pressure was -0.1%, dictated by fuel as well as food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) deflation.
17 September 2025
Flash Notes
June manufacturing output encouraging but challenges remain
Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 1.9% y/y in June, after increasing by 0.7% (previously 0.5%) in May. Prior to May and June, manufacturing recorded an average monthly annual decline of 2.6% between November 2024 and April 2025, reflecting subdued domestic demand.
11 August 2025
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