Flash Notes
Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in June
Retail sales growth slowed to 1.6% year-on-year (y/y) in June, down from 2.2% in May (revised from 2.3%) and well below market expectations of a 2.5% y/y expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) seasonally-adjusted basis, sales volumes fell 0.6%, a reversal from a broadly flat May.
19 August 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June
Headline inflation rose to 5.0% year-on-year (y/y) in June from 4.5% in May, exceeding our forecast of 4.8% and market consensus of 4.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), mainly driven by core inflation.
22 July 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation accelerates further in May
Headline inflation rose to 4.5% year-on-year (y/y) in May from 4.0% in April. The print is lower than our forecast and market consensus of 4.8%. Monthly pressure was 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), mainly due to energy and core inflation.
17 June 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture
09 June 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales growth slows in February
Retail sales growth eased sharply to 1.6% y/y in February, down from 4.4% in January (revised from 4.2%), and well below market expectations of a 4.8% expansion. On a month on month basis, sales volumes declined by 1.0%, reversing the 0.9% gain in the previous month.
22 April 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% q/q (seasonally adjusted) in 4Q25, following a downwardly revised 0.3% q/q in 3Q25 (previously 0.5%). The outcome exceeded both the Reuters consensus and our forecast of 0.3%. On an annual basis, growth moderated to 0.8% y/y, down from 2.1% y/y in 3Q25, largely reflecting a sharp reversal in agricultural growth to -12.8% from a 62.9% surge in 3Q25 (previously 49.9%).
10 March 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in June
Retail sales growth slowed to 1.6% year-on-year (y/y) in June, down from 2.2% in May (revised from 2.3%) and well below market expectations of a 2.5% y/y expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) seasonally-adjusted basis, sales volumes fell 0.6%, a reversal from a broadly flat May.
19 August 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June
Headline inflation rose to 5.0% year-on-year (y/y) in June from 4.5% in May, exceeding our forecast of 4.8% and market consensus of 4.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), mainly driven by core inflation.
22 July 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation accelerates further in May
Headline inflation rose to 4.5% year-on-year (y/y) in May from 4.0% in April. The print is lower than our forecast and market consensus of 4.8%. Monthly pressure was 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), mainly due to energy and core inflation.
17 June 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture
09 June 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales growth slows in February
Retail sales growth eased sharply to 1.6% y/y in February, down from 4.4% in January (revised from 4.2%), and well below market expectations of a 4.8% expansion. On a month on month basis, sales volumes declined by 1.0%, reversing the 0.9% gain in the previous month.
22 April 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% q/q (seasonally adjusted) in 4Q25, following a downwardly revised 0.3% q/q in 3Q25 (previously 0.5%). The outcome exceeded both the Reuters consensus and our forecast of 0.3%. On an annual basis, growth moderated to 0.8% y/y, down from 2.1% y/y in 3Q25, largely reflecting a sharp reversal in agricultural growth to -12.8% from a 62.9% surge in 3Q25 (previously 49.9%).
10 March 2026
Disclaimer
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