Flash Notes
Retail sales growth slows in February
Retail sales growth eased sharply to 1.6% y/y in February, down from 4.4% in January (revised from 4.2%), and well below market expectations of a 4.8% expansion. On a month on month basis, sales volumes declined by 1.0%, reversing the 0.9% gain in the previous month.
22 April 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% q/q (seasonally adjusted) in 4Q25, following a downwardly revised 0.3% q/q in 3Q25 (previously 0.5%). The outcome exceeded both the Reuters consensus and our forecast of 0.3%. On an annual basis, growth moderated to 0.8% y/y, down from 2.1% y/y in 3Q25, largely reflecting a sharp reversal in agricultural growth to -12.8% from a 62.9% surge in 3Q25 (previously 49.9%).
10 March 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025
Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% in November. The print is aligned with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly upheld by rising services costs as well as higher fuel prices.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
September manufacturing output remains subdued
Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 0.3% in September following declines of 1.1% y/y and 1.5% y/y in July and August, respectively. The outcome exceeded the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 0.3% decline.
11 November 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales soar in July
Retail sales showed a strong performance in July, registering 5.6% y/y, up from a softer 1.7% in June. This marks the 17th consecutive month of positive year-on-year growth and significantly exceeds market expectations of 2.7%. On a month-on-month basis, volumes rebounded to 2.1%, following declines of 0.4% and 0.1% in May and June, respectively. The strength in retail, particularly in non-essential categories, reflects improving household purchasing power and balance sheets, as well as a less restrictive monetary policy.
17 September 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales growth slows in February
Retail sales growth eased sharply to 1.6% y/y in February, down from 4.4% in January (revised from 4.2%), and well below market expectations of a 4.8% expansion. On a month on month basis, sales volumes declined by 1.0%, reversing the 0.9% gain in the previous month.
22 April 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% q/q (seasonally adjusted) in 4Q25, following a downwardly revised 0.3% q/q in 3Q25 (previously 0.5%). The outcome exceeded both the Reuters consensus and our forecast of 0.3%. On an annual basis, growth moderated to 0.8% y/y, down from 2.1% y/y in 3Q25, largely reflecting a sharp reversal in agricultural growth to -12.8% from a 62.9% surge in 3Q25 (previously 49.9%).
10 March 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025
Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% in November. The print is aligned with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly upheld by rising services costs as well as higher fuel prices.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
September manufacturing output remains subdued
Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 0.3% in September following declines of 1.1% y/y and 1.5% y/y in July and August, respectively. The outcome exceeded the Bloomberg consensus forecast of a 0.3% decline.
11 November 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales soar in July
Retail sales showed a strong performance in July, registering 5.6% y/y, up from a softer 1.7% in June. This marks the 17th consecutive month of positive year-on-year growth and significantly exceeds market expectations of 2.7%. On a month-on-month basis, volumes rebounded to 2.1%, following declines of 0.4% and 0.1% in May and June, respectively. The strength in retail, particularly in non-essential categories, reflects improving household purchasing power and balance sheets, as well as a less restrictive monetary policy.
17 September 2025
Disclaimer
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