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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

GDP growth undergoes a material moderation in 2Q26

Real GDP contracted by 0.2% q/q in 2Q26, following revised growth of 0.4% q/q in 1Q26. This represents a material moderation in economic activity and ends six consecutive quarters of GDP growth. The outcome was slightly below our forecast of 0.0% and the market consensus of -0.1%. On an annual basis, growth moderated to 0.9% y/y, from 1.9% y/y in the previous quarter, with year-to-date growth at 1.4%, ahead of our full-year forecast of 1.2% for 2026.

08 September 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in June

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

July consumer inflation eases, topping forecasts

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains challenged

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Labour-market weakness raises questions over household resilience

The labour market weakened further in 2Q26, reinforcing the view that household spending power remains constrained. South Africa's official unemployment rate increased to 33.6% in 2Q26, from 32.7% in 1Q26, while employment declined by approximately 15 657 quarter-on-quarter (q/q) to 16 738 625. The deterioration was broad-based, with employment losses concentrated in sectors including community and social services, agriculture and manufacturing.

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth exceeds expectations in May

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates in April

20 July 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains under pressure despite monthly rebound

09 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture

09 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a material quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline of 344 626 in total employment in 1Q26, bringing employment back to 16 754 282, following an increase of 44 085 in the final quarter of 2025.

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains weak in February

09 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.

18 March 2026

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Filter by

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Types

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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

GDP growth undergoes a material moderation in 2Q26

Real GDP contracted by 0.2% q/q in 2Q26, following revised growth of 0.4% q/q in 1Q26. This represents a material moderation in economic activity and ends six consecutive quarters of GDP growth. The outcome was slightly below our forecast of 0.0% and the market consensus of -0.1%. On an annual basis, growth moderated to 0.9% y/y, from 1.9% y/y in the previous quarter, with year-to-date growth at 1.4%, ahead of our full-year forecast of 1.2% for 2026.

08 September 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in June

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

July consumer inflation eases, topping forecasts

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains challenged

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Labour-market weakness raises questions over household resilience

The labour market weakened further in 2Q26, reinforcing the view that household spending power remains constrained. South Africa's official unemployment rate increased to 33.6% in 2Q26, from 32.7% in 1Q26, while employment declined by approximately 15 657 quarter-on-quarter (q/q) to 16 738 625. The deterioration was broad-based, with employment losses concentrated in sectors including community and social services, agriculture and manufacturing.

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth exceeds expectations in May

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates in April

20 July 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains under pressure despite monthly rebound

09 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture

09 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a material quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline of 344 626 in total employment in 1Q26, bringing employment back to 16 754 282, following an increase of 44 085 in the final quarter of 2025.

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains weak in February

09 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.

18 March 2026

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).

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