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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a material quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline of 344 626 in total employment in 1Q26, bringing employment back to 16 754 282, following an increase of 44 085 in the final quarter of 2025.

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains weak in February

09 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.

18 March 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption

10 March 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales wane in December

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 2.5% y/y in December 2025, reflecting a rebound from a 2.4% decline (revised from -2.7%) in November. Seasonally-adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, declined by 1.2% m/m, less pronounced than the 5.4% monthly decline recorded in November.

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales exceed expectations in November

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

SA economy maintains positive momentum in 3Q25

02 December 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales accelerate in September

19 November 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October

Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in October from 3.4% in September. The print was slightly below our and the market expectation of 3.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.1%, upheld by rising services costs.

19 November 2025

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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a material quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline of 344 626 in total employment in 1Q26, bringing employment back to 16 754 282, following an increase of 44 085 in the final quarter of 2025.

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains weak in February

09 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.

18 March 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption

10 March 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales wane in December

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 2.5% y/y in December 2025, reflecting a rebound from a 2.4% decline (revised from -2.7%) in November. Seasonally-adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, declined by 1.2% m/m, less pronounced than the 5.4% monthly decline recorded in November.

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales exceed expectations in November

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

SA economy maintains positive momentum in 3Q25

02 December 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales accelerate in September

19 November 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October

Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in October from 3.4% in September. The print was slightly below our and the market expectation of 3.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.1%, upheld by rising services costs.

19 November 2025

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).

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