Flash Notes
Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June
Headline inflation rose to 5.0% year-on-year (y/y) in June from 4.5% in May, exceeding our forecast of 4.8% and market consensus of 4.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), mainly driven by core inflation.
22 July 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April
Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.
17 June 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture
09 June 2026
Flash Notes
1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a material quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline of 344 626 in total employment in 1Q26, bringing employment back to 16 754 282, following an increase of 44 085 in the final quarter of 2025.
12 May 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February
Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.
18 March 2026
Flash Notes
Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 2.5% y/y in December 2025, reflecting a rebound from a 2.4% decline (revised from -2.7%) in November. Seasonally-adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, declined by 1.2% m/m, less pronounced than the 5.4% monthly decline recorded in November.
12 February 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June
Headline inflation rose to 5.0% year-on-year (y/y) in June from 4.5% in May, exceeding our forecast of 4.8% and market consensus of 4.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.7% month-on-month (m/m), mainly driven by core inflation.
22 July 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April
Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.
17 June 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture
09 June 2026
Flash Notes
1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), a household-based employment survey (not seasonally adjusted), recorded a material quarter-on-quarter (q/q) decline of 344 626 in total employment in 1Q26, bringing employment back to 16 754 282, following an increase of 44 085 in the final quarter of 2025.
12 May 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February
Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.
18 March 2026
Flash Notes
Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 2.5% y/y in December 2025, reflecting a rebound from a 2.4% decline (revised from -2.7%) in November. Seasonally-adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, declined by 1.2% m/m, less pronounced than the 5.4% monthly decline recorded in November.
12 February 2026
Disclaimer
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