Flash Notes
Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025
Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% in November. The print is aligned with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly upheld by rising services costs as well as higher fuel prices.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in October from 3.4% in September. The print was slightly below our and the market expectation of 3.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.1%, upheld by rising services costs.
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Mining output experiences a setback in August
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) marginally contracted by 0.2% y/y in August after expanding by an upwardly revised 5.1% y/y (previously 4.4% y/y) in July. The outturn was weaker than Bloomberg consensus expectations of a 1.7% y/y increase. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for quarterly GDP growth calculations, decreased by 1.2% m/m, reversing the 1.2% (previously 1.0%) monthly gain in July. In the three months to August, mining output was up by 3.3%, highlighting continued sectoral support for 3Q GDP growth, albeit likely to a lesser extent than what played out in 2Q25.
14 October 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation lifts in July
Headline inflation lifted to 3.5% y/y in July, up from 3.0% in June. The print was slightly below our 3.6% forecast but in line with the consensus expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.9%, mainly driven by electricity and core items.
20 August 2025
Flash Notes
Mining production weakness extends to April
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) remained weak into the start of 2Q25, with output contracting sharply by 7.7% y/y in April following a 2.5% decline in March (revised from -2.8%). This marked the sixth consecutive month of annual decline.
12 June 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025
Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in December from 3.5% in November. The print is aligned with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly upheld by rising services costs as well as higher fuel prices.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
Headline inflation lifted to 3.6% y/y in October from 3.4% in September. The print was slightly below our and the market expectation of 3.7%. Monthly pressure was 0.1%, upheld by rising services costs.
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Mining output experiences a setback in August
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) marginally contracted by 0.2% y/y in August after expanding by an upwardly revised 5.1% y/y (previously 4.4% y/y) in July. The outturn was weaker than Bloomberg consensus expectations of a 1.7% y/y increase. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for quarterly GDP growth calculations, decreased by 1.2% m/m, reversing the 1.2% (previously 1.0%) monthly gain in July. In the three months to August, mining output was up by 3.3%, highlighting continued sectoral support for 3Q GDP growth, albeit likely to a lesser extent than what played out in 2Q25.
14 October 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation lifts in July
Headline inflation lifted to 3.5% y/y in July, up from 3.0% in June. The print was slightly below our 3.6% forecast but in line with the consensus expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.9%, mainly driven by electricity and core items.
20 August 2025
Flash Notes
Mining production weakness extends to April
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) remained weak into the start of 2Q25, with output contracting sharply by 7.7% y/y in April following a 2.5% decline in March (revised from -2.8%). This marked the sixth consecutive month of annual decline.
12 June 2025
Disclaimer
This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.
