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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output reflects a good start to 3Q26

Following a disappointing performance in manufacturing production in 2Q26, activity rebounded at the start of 3Q26. Non-seasonally adjusted manufacturing output increased by 1.1% year-on-year (y/y) in July, after three consecutive months of annual contraction. The outturn was significantly better than the Bloomberg consensus projection of a 2.0% contraction. Six of the ten manufacturing divisions recorded increases in production, while four recorded decreases.

10 September 2026

Flash Notes

Mining weakness deepens at the start of 3Q26 despite resilient mineral sales

10 September 2026

Flash Notes

GDP growth undergoes a material moderation in 2Q26

08 September 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in June

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

July consumer inflation eases, topping forecasts

Headline inflation eased to 4.3% year-on-year (y/y) in July from 5.0% in June, coming in slightly below our forecast of 4.4% and market consensus of 4.5%. Monthly pressure was 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), mainly driven by electricity and core inflation.

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains challenged

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Labour-market weakness raises questions over household resilience

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth exceeds expectations in May

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates in April

Headline inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year (y/y) in April from 3.1% in March. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.8% but in line with market consensus. Monthly pressure was 1.1%, mainly due to pressures from fuel and core inflation, with a further marginal pressure from food.

20 July 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains under pressure despite monthly rebound

09 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture

09 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

Retail sales growth increased to 2.6% year-on-year (y/y) in March, up from 1.6% in February, broadly in line with market expectations of a 2.5% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, sales volumes edged up by 0.1%, recovering from a 1.1% decline in the previous month.

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded strongly by 9.7% y/y in February, reflecting an acceleration from an upwardly revised 5.0% (previously 4.6%) expansion in January. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, increased by 2.3% m/m, following a 3.7% (originally 2.9%) increase in January. In the three months to February, seasonally-adjusted output was down by 1.7%. However, the sector should still underpin first-quarter GDP growth as March's output would have to decline sharply for the sector to drag on 1Q26 GDP.

14 April 2026

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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output reflects a good start to 3Q26

Following a disappointing performance in manufacturing production in 2Q26, activity rebounded at the start of 3Q26. Non-seasonally adjusted manufacturing output increased by 1.1% year-on-year (y/y) in July, after three consecutive months of annual contraction. The outturn was significantly better than the Bloomberg consensus projection of a 2.0% contraction. Six of the ten manufacturing divisions recorded increases in production, while four recorded decreases.

10 September 2026

Flash Notes

Mining weakness deepens at the start of 3Q26 despite resilient mineral sales

10 September 2026

Flash Notes

GDP growth undergoes a material moderation in 2Q26

08 September 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in June

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

July consumer inflation eases, topping forecasts

Headline inflation eased to 4.3% year-on-year (y/y) in July from 5.0% in June, coming in slightly below our forecast of 4.4% and market consensus of 4.5%. Monthly pressure was 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), mainly driven by electricity and core inflation.

19 August 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains challenged

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Labour-market weakness raises questions over household resilience

11 August 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation exceeds expectations in June

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth exceeds expectations in May

22 July 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates in April

Headline inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year (y/y) in April from 3.1% in March. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.8% but in line with market consensus. Monthly pressure was 1.1%, mainly due to pressures from fuel and core inflation, with a further marginal pressure from food.

20 July 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains under pressure despite monthly rebound

09 July 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture

09 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

Retail sales growth increased to 2.6% year-on-year (y/y) in March, up from 1.6% in February, broadly in line with market expectations of a 2.5% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, sales volumes edged up by 0.1%, recovering from a 1.1% decline in the previous month.

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded strongly by 9.7% y/y in February, reflecting an acceleration from an upwardly revised 5.0% (previously 4.6%) expansion in January. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, increased by 2.3% m/m, following a 3.7% (originally 2.9%) increase in January. In the three months to February, seasonally-adjusted output was down by 1.7%. However, the sector should still underpin first-quarter GDP growth as March's output would have to decline sharply for the sector to drag on 1Q26 GDP.

14 April 2026

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).

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