Flash Notes
Consumer inflation accelerates in April
Headline inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year (y/y) in April from 3.1% in March. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.8% but in line with market consensus. Monthly pressure was 1.1%, mainly due to pressures from fuel and core inflation, with a further marginal pressure from food.
20 July 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) (seasonally adjusted) in 1Q26, a modest acceleration from 0.4% q/q in 4Q25. The outturn was stronger than our forecast of 0.2% and the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.3%. This marked the sixth successive quarter of GDP expansion.
09 June 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation increases slightly in March
Headline inflation ticked up to 3.1% y/y in March from 3.0% in February. The print was in line with our forecast and the market's expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.6%, mainly due to core inflation.
22 April 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026
Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% y/y in January from 3.6% in December. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.3% and the market expectation of 3.4%. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly driven by core and food price pressures which were mitigated by lower fuel prices.
18 February 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales exceed expectations in November
Retail sales growth accelerated to 3.5% y/y in November, up from 3.0% in October (revised from 2.9%), surpassing market expectations for a 2.5% increase. On a month-on-month basis, sales volumes rose 0.6%, slightly slower than the 1.0% recorded previously. This outcome bodes well for 4Q25 GDP growth. Activity in November was likely supported by Black Friday related promotions, which most retailers spread across the month.
21 January 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation accelerates in April
Headline inflation rose to 4.0% year-on-year (y/y) in April from 3.1% in March. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.8% but in line with market consensus. Monthly pressure was 1.1%, mainly due to pressures from fuel and core inflation, with a further marginal pressure from food.
20 July 2026
Flash Notes
Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) (seasonally adjusted) in 1Q26, a modest acceleration from 0.4% q/q in 4Q25. The outturn was stronger than our forecast of 0.2% and the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.3%. This marked the sixth successive quarter of GDP expansion.
09 June 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation increases slightly in March
Headline inflation ticked up to 3.1% y/y in March from 3.0% in February. The print was in line with our forecast and the market's expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.6%, mainly due to core inflation.
22 April 2026
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026
Headline inflation slowed to 3.5% y/y in January from 3.6% in December. The print is higher than our forecast of 3.3% and the market expectation of 3.4%. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, mainly driven by core and food price pressures which were mitigated by lower fuel prices.
18 February 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales exceed expectations in November
Retail sales growth accelerated to 3.5% y/y in November, up from 3.0% in October (revised from 2.9%), surpassing market expectations for a 2.5% increase. On a month-on-month basis, sales volumes rose 0.6%, slightly slower than the 1.0% recorded previously. This outcome bodes well for 4Q25 GDP growth. Activity in November was likely supported by Black Friday related promotions, which most retailers spread across the month.
21 January 2026
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