Flash Notes
Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February
Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.
18 March 2026
Flash Notes
Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth
Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) declined by 1.4% y/y in December 2025, following a 2.0% decline in November, which was revised down from a previously reported 1.0% decline. Seasonally-adjusted manufacturing output fell by 2.1% m/m, worse than the 0.7% decline recorded in November. As a result, manufacturing output declined by 0.5% in 4Q25, underscoring a drag on GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025.
12 February 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales accelerate in September
Retail sales growth strengthened to 3.1% y/y in September, up from 2.2% in August (revised down from 2.3%). This was marginally below market expectations of a 3.2% increase. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales were flat. However, total sales volumes rose 0.9% q/q in 3Q25, improving from 0.6% in 2Q25. This indicates that retail activity made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales cool in August
Retail sales growth decelerated in August, coming in at 2.3% y/y. This marks a sharp drop from 5.7% y/y in July and well below market expectations of a 3.7% expansion. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales declined by 1.3%, partially reversing the 2.3% gains of the previous month.
15 October 2025
Flash Notes
GDP growth momentum sustained in 2Q25
Real GDP (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 0.6% y/y in 2Q25 (versus our 0.7% expectation), following increases of 0.8% y/y in both 1Q25 and 4Q24. On a seasonally adjusted (non-annualised) basis, the economy expanded by 0.8% q/q, sustaining momentum after the 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. This outcome was 0.3-percentage points (ppts) above both our forecast and the Reuters consensus of 0.5% q/q.
09 September 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February
Headline inflation fell to 3.0% y/y in February, from 3.5% in January, reaching the South African Reserve Bank's revised inflation target for the first time. The print was lower than our forecast of 3.2% and the market expectation of 3.1%. Monthly pressure was 0.4%, mainly due to services inflation, while food and fuel deflation mitigated the pressure.
18 March 2026
Flash Notes
Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth
Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) declined by 1.4% y/y in December 2025, following a 2.0% decline in November, which was revised down from a previously reported 1.0% decline. Seasonally-adjusted manufacturing output fell by 2.1% m/m, worse than the 0.7% decline recorded in November. As a result, manufacturing output declined by 0.5% in 4Q25, underscoring a drag on GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025.
12 February 2026
Flash Notes
Retail sales accelerate in September
Retail sales growth strengthened to 3.1% y/y in September, up from 2.2% in August (revised down from 2.3%). This was marginally below market expectations of a 3.2% increase. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales were flat. However, total sales volumes rose 0.9% q/q in 3Q25, improving from 0.6% in 2Q25. This indicates that retail activity made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales cool in August
Retail sales growth decelerated in August, coming in at 2.3% y/y. This marks a sharp drop from 5.7% y/y in July and well below market expectations of a 3.7% expansion. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales declined by 1.3%, partially reversing the 2.3% gains of the previous month.
15 October 2025
Flash Notes
GDP growth momentum sustained in 2Q25
Real GDP (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 0.6% y/y in 2Q25 (versus our 0.7% expectation), following increases of 0.8% y/y in both 1Q25 and 4Q24. On a seasonally adjusted (non-annualised) basis, the economy expanded by 0.8% q/q, sustaining momentum after the 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. This outcome was 0.3-percentage points (ppts) above both our forecast and the Reuters consensus of 0.5% q/q.
09 September 2025
Disclaimer
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