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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded strongly by 9.7% y/y in February, reflecting an acceleration from an upwardly revised 5.0% (previously 4.6%) expansion in January. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, increased by 2.3% m/m, following a 3.7% (originally 2.9%) increase in January. In the three months to February, seasonally-adjusted output was down by 1.7%. However, the sector should still underpin first-quarter GDP growth as March's output would have to decline sharply for the sector to drag on 1Q26 GDP.

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

18 March 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption

10 March 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales wane in December

Retail sales growth decelerated to 2.6% y/y in December, down from 3.6% in November (revised from 3.5%), undershooting market expectations of a 3.1% expansion. On a month on month basis, sales volumes declined by 0.4%, partly reversing the 0.6% increase recorded previously.

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales exceed expectations in November

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

SA economy maintains positive momentum in 3Q25

Real GDP (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 2.1% y/y in 3Q25, up from an upwardly revised 0.9% y/y (previously 0.6% y/y) in 2Q25. The improvement was largely driven by a stronger-than-expected 49.9% y/y surge in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Excluding this notoriously volatile sector, GDP growth would have been closer to 1.1% y/y.

02 December 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales accelerate in September

19 November 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October

19 November 2025

Flash Notes

September manufacturing output remains subdued

11 November 2025

Flash Notes

3Q25 QLFS: Employment momentum maintained

11 November 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation tilts upwards in September

Headline inflation was 3.4% y/y in September, a slight increase from 3.3% in August. The print was in line with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, driven by core inflation.

22 October 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales cool in August

15 October 2025

Flash Notes

Mining output experiences a setback in August

14 October 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales soar in July

17 September 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softer in August

17 September 2025

Flash Notes

Mining output shows a strong start to 3Q25

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 4.4% y/y in July, accelerating from 2.5% (previously 2.4%) in June. This marks a solid start to 3Q25, following a decent contribution to 2Q25 GDP growth. The outcome was stronger than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3.4%. Seasonally adjusted, mining output also rose by 1.0% m/m, a fifth consecutive monthly increase, providing early signs of continued momentum in GDP growth.

11 September 2025

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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded strongly by 9.7% y/y in February, reflecting an acceleration from an upwardly revised 5.0% (previously 4.6%) expansion in January. Seasonally adjusted mining output, which is critical for the calculation of quarterly GDP growth, increased by 2.3% m/m, following a 3.7% (originally 2.9%) increase in January. In the three months to February, seasonally-adjusted output was down by 1.7%. However, the sector should still underpin first-quarter GDP growth as March's output would have to decline sharply for the sector to drag on 1Q26 GDP.

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

18 March 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption

10 March 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales wane in December

Retail sales growth decelerated to 2.6% y/y in December, down from 3.6% in November (revised from 3.5%), undershooting market expectations of a 3.1% expansion. On a month on month basis, sales volumes declined by 0.4%, partly reversing the 0.6% increase recorded previously.

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales exceed expectations in November

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

SA economy maintains positive momentum in 3Q25

Real GDP (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 2.1% y/y in 3Q25, up from an upwardly revised 0.9% y/y (previously 0.6% y/y) in 2Q25. The improvement was largely driven by a stronger-than-expected 49.9% y/y surge in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Excluding this notoriously volatile sector, GDP growth would have been closer to 1.1% y/y.

02 December 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales accelerate in September

19 November 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation shifts closer to top of new tolerance band in October

19 November 2025

Flash Notes

September manufacturing output remains subdued

11 November 2025

Flash Notes

3Q25 QLFS: Employment momentum maintained

11 November 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation tilts upwards in September

Headline inflation was 3.4% y/y in September, a slight increase from 3.3% in August. The print was in line with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.2%, driven by core inflation.

22 October 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales cool in August

15 October 2025

Flash Notes

Mining output experiences a setback in August

14 October 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales soar in July

17 September 2025

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softer in August

17 September 2025

Flash Notes

Mining output shows a strong start to 3Q25

Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) expanded by 4.4% y/y in July, accelerating from 2.5% (previously 2.4%) in June. This marks a solid start to 3Q25, following a decent contribution to 2Q25 GDP growth. The outcome was stronger than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3.4%. Seasonally adjusted, mining output also rose by 1.0% m/m, a fifth consecutive monthly increase, providing early signs of continued momentum in GDP growth.

11 September 2025

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).

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