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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture

09 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) increased slightly by 0.9% y/y in March, reflecting a rebound from a 2.3% contraction (previously -2.8%) in February. This marked the first monthly annual increase following four consecutive months of negative growth.

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains weak in February

Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) declined by 2.8% y/y in February, following a 0.1% decline in January (previously -0.7%). This was weaker than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of a mild 0.1% decline.

09 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

18 March 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption

10 March 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales wane in December

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth

Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) declined by 1.4% y/y in December 2025, following a 2.0% decline in November, which was revised down from a previously reported 1.0% decline. Seasonally-adjusted manufacturing output fell by 2.1% m/m, worse than the 0.7% decline recorded in November. As a result, manufacturing output declined by 0.5% in 4Q25, underscoring a drag on GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025.

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales exceed expectations in November

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

SA economy maintains positive momentum in 3Q25

02 December 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales accelerate in September

Retail sales growth strengthened to 3.1% y/y in September, up from 2.2% in August (revised down from 2.3%). This was marginally below market expectations of a 3.2% increase. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales were flat. However, total sales volumes rose 0.9% q/q in 3Q25, improving from 0.6% in 2Q25. This indicates that retail activity made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.

19 November 2025

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Flash Notes

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth comes in below expectations in April

Retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.5% in March (revised from 2.6%) and well below market expectations of a 2.0% expansion. On a month-on-month (m/m) basis, however, sales volumes increased by 0.9%, up from a 0.1% uptick in the previous month. This release provides an early indication of consumer responsiveness to the sharp fuel price increases linked to tensions in the Middle East.

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation accelerates further in May

17 June 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 1Q26, supported by financial services and agriculture

09 June 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth ticks higher in March

20 May 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output improves slightly in March

Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) increased slightly by 0.9% y/y in March, reflecting a rebound from a 2.3% contraction (previously -2.8%) in February. This marked the first monthly annual increase following four consecutive months of negative growth.

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

1Q26 QLFS: Employment momentum weakens at the start of 2026

12 May 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales growth slows in February

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation increases slightly in March

22 April 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output momentum carries over to February

14 April 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output remains weak in February

Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) declined by 2.8% y/y in February, following a 0.1% decline in January (previously -0.7%). This was weaker than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of a mild 0.1% decline.

09 April 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation reaches SARB target in February

18 March 2026

Flash Notes

Growth momentum sustained in 4Q25, supported by services and consumption

10 March 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation softens at the start of 2026

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales wane in December

18 February 2026

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output declines in December, dragging on 4Q25 GDP growth

Manufacturing output (not seasonally adjusted) declined by 1.4% y/y in December 2025, following a 2.0% decline in November, which was revised down from a previously reported 1.0% decline. Seasonally-adjusted manufacturing output fell by 2.1% m/m, worse than the 0.7% decline recorded in November. As a result, manufacturing output declined by 0.5% in 4Q25, underscoring a drag on GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025.

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Mining output up 2.5% y/y, drags on 4Q25 GDP growth

12 February 2026

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation ticks up at the end of 2025

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

Retail sales exceed expectations in November

21 January 2026

Flash Notes

SA economy maintains positive momentum in 3Q25

02 December 2025

Flash Notes

Retail sales accelerate in September

Retail sales growth strengthened to 3.1% y/y in September, up from 2.2% in August (revised down from 2.3%). This was marginally below market expectations of a 3.2% increase. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales were flat. However, total sales volumes rose 0.9% q/q in 3Q25, improving from 0.6% in 2Q25. This indicates that retail activity made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.

19 November 2025

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable. Still, it is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise. We do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein, irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of ours, and whether such losses are direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors, and FNB bears no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence thereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact their relationship manager for a personal financial analysis before making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.

First National Bank - a division of FirstRand Bank Limited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider 1929/001225/06 (NCRCP20).

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