Flash Notes
Retail sales accelerate in September
Retail sales growth strengthened to 3.1% y/y in September, up from 2.2% in August (revised down from 2.3%). This was marginally below market expectations of a 3.2% increase. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales were flat. However, total sales volumes rose 0.9% q/q in 3Q25, improving from 0.6% in 2Q25. This indicates that retail activity made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales cool in August
Retail sales growth decelerated in August, coming in at 2.3% y/y. This marks a sharp drop from 5.7% y/y in July and well below market expectations of a 3.7% expansion. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales declined by 1.3%, partially reversing the 2.3% gains of the previous month.
15 October 2025
Flash Notes
GDP growth momentum sustained in 2Q25
Real GDP (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 0.6% y/y in 2Q25 (versus our 0.7% expectation), following increases of 0.8% y/y in both 1Q25 and 4Q24. On a seasonally adjusted (non-annualised) basis, the economy expanded by 0.8% q/q, sustaining momentum after the 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. This outcome was 0.3-percentage points (ppts) above both our forecast and the Reuters consensus of 0.5% q/q.
09 September 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales surge in April
Consumer spending began 2Q25 on a strong note, with retail sales rising by 5.1% y/y in April-up from a revised 1.2% in March (previously 1.5%), and significantly above market expectations of a 3.1% increase.
18 June 2025
Flash Notes
April manufacturing output down by 6.3% y/y, reflecting continued challenges
10 June 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation ticks up slightly in April
Headline inflation was 2.8% y/y in April, up from 2.7% in March. The print was slightly above our and the consensus expectation of 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively. Monthly pressure was 0.3%, led by contributions from food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) inflation.
21 May 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales accelerate in September
Retail sales growth strengthened to 3.1% y/y in September, up from 2.2% in August (revised down from 2.3%). This was marginally below market expectations of a 3.2% increase. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales were flat. However, total sales volumes rose 0.9% q/q in 3Q25, improving from 0.6% in 2Q25. This indicates that retail activity made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.
19 November 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales cool in August
Retail sales growth decelerated in August, coming in at 2.3% y/y. This marks a sharp drop from 5.7% y/y in July and well below market expectations of a 3.7% expansion. On a month-on-month basis, volume sales declined by 1.3%, partially reversing the 2.3% gains of the previous month.
15 October 2025
Flash Notes
GDP growth momentum sustained in 2Q25
Real GDP (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 0.6% y/y in 2Q25 (versus our 0.7% expectation), following increases of 0.8% y/y in both 1Q25 and 4Q24. On a seasonally adjusted (non-annualised) basis, the economy expanded by 0.8% q/q, sustaining momentum after the 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. This outcome was 0.3-percentage points (ppts) above both our forecast and the Reuters consensus of 0.5% q/q.
09 September 2025
Flash Notes
Retail sales surge in April
Consumer spending began 2Q25 on a strong note, with retail sales rising by 5.1% y/y in April-up from a revised 1.2% in March (previously 1.5%), and significantly above market expectations of a 3.1% increase.
18 June 2025
Flash Notes
April manufacturing output down by 6.3% y/y, reflecting continued challenges
10 June 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation ticks up slightly in April
Headline inflation was 2.8% y/y in April, up from 2.7% in March. The print was slightly above our and the consensus expectation of 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively. Monthly pressure was 0.3%, led by contributions from food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) inflation.
21 May 2025
Disclaimer
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