Flash Notes
Mining production decline extends into March, dragging on 1Q25 GDP growth
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) declined again in March by 2.8% y/y after falling by 9.7% y/y (previously -9.6%) in February. This marked five successive months of annual decline. Seasonally adjusted mining output expanded by 3.5% m/m, reflecting a rebound from a 4.1% monthly decline, better than the previously recorded fall of 4.4%.
15 May 2025
Flash Notes
March manufacturing output down 0.8% y/y and 2.2% m/m, weighs on GDP growth
23 April 2025
Flash Notes
Mining production slumps sharply in February, pointing to a weak 1Q25 GDP contribution
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) declined sharply by 9.6% y/y in February, following a downwardly revised 1.5% contraction in January (previously -2.7%). The February outcome was notably weaker than expectations, surprising to the downside by 5.8 percentage points (ppts) relative to the Reuters consensus forecast of a 3.8% decline. Excluding gold, mining output fell by an even steeper 10.0% y/y.
15 April 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation edges up at the start of 2025
Headline inflation was 3.2% y/y in January, up from 3.0% in December. The print was in line with our and the market expectation. Monthly pressure was 0.3%, led by contributions from core and food inflation.
26 February 2025
Flash Notes
Consumer inflation at the bottom of inflation target band
Headline inflation lifted slightly to 3.0% y/y in December, remaining at the lower end of the inflation target band, from 2.9% in November. The print was slightly below our and the market expectation of 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. Monthly pressure was 0.1%, reflecting slight contributions from fuel and food inflation. Headline inflation averaged 4.4% in 2024, down from 6.0% in 2023.
22 January 2025
Flash Notes
Mining output: Sustained annual growth in October
Mining production (not seasonally adjusted) grew by 1.4% y/y in October, marking a deceleration from the revised 4.9% y/y increase (previously 4.7%) recorded in September. This result fell short of the Reuters consensus forecast of a 2.9% rise. Seasonally adjusted, mining output, critical for quarterly GDP calculations, contracted by 3.0% m/m, indicating a weak start to the fourth quarter.
10 December 2024
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