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Financial planning

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Economics

Economics Weekly

Navigating economic challenges amid delayed interest rate cuts and global uncertainty

Following the weaker-than-expected economic activity during the first quarter, and our updated interest rates view, we have revised our growth projections. Persistent inflation, associated risks, and the delay in the US Fed interest rate cutting cycle underpin our revised domestic interest rate outlook. We now anticipate a delayed initiation of the rate-cutting cycle by the SARB, with the first cut expected to materialise only in November 2024, as opposed to July.

03 May 2024

Economics Weekly

High for longer: A quick pulse check on the credit market

26 April 2024

Economics weekly

The global economy shows some resilience but we are not out of the woods yet

19 April 2024

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation slows more than expected in March

17 April 2024

Flash Notes

Retail sales declined in February

Retail sales fell by 0.8% y/y in February, from a decline of 2.0% in January (revised from -2.1%). Although the outcome is discouraging, it was still better than the Reuters consensus of a 1.6% decline.

17 April 2024

Economics weekly

A portion of the economy is feeling the strain amid tighter financial conditions

12 April 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output continued to show further growth in February

11 April 2024

Flash Notes

Mining output experienced a significant growth surge in February

11 April 2024

Economics weekly

1Q24 economic activity data still mixed

05 April 2024

Flash Notes

QES: Formal sector jobs lost in 4Q23

Employment in the formal non-agricultural sectors of the economy, as shown by the Quarterly Employment Survey, contracted by 194 000 jobs or -1.8% q/q in 4Q23. Many of the jobs shed were in community services, in line with phase four of the Presidential Youth Employment Initiative (PYEI) having ended in 3Q23.

26 March 2024

Economics weekly

MPC perils: Sticky global inflation and adverse risk sentiment

22 March 2024

Flash Notes

Consumer inflation lifts yet again in February

20 March 2024

Economics Weekly

Where to for the building sector?

15 March 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output surprised to the upside at the start of 2024

14 March 2024

Flash Notes

Mining output fell short of expectations in December 2023

Total mining production (not seasonally adjusted) contracted by 3.3% y/y in January, marking a deterioration from a downwardly revised 0.3% y/y expansion recorded in December 2023 (previously 0.6%). This outcome fell notably below the Bloomberg consensus prediction of a 0.4% increase.

14 March 2024

Property

A sideways movement in house prices, in line with expectations

13 March 2024

Economics Weekly

Analysing gross fixed capital formation trends

08 March 2024

Flash Notes

4Q23 GDP: Resilient economy narrowly escapes technical recession

05 March 2024

Economics Weekly

Fiscal prudence: What lessons can we learn from around the globe?

01 March 2024

Economics weekly

The Budget: Modest rise in revenue, expenditure pressures and tapping into buffers

The 2024 National Budget provides a delicate balancing act between swelling spending pressures and limited revenue sources. Persistent weak economic growth and a rising population has resulted in more people being left on the fringes of the economy, unable to contribute meaningfully to the tax base but instead depending on social welfare. Despite this, Treasury has once again presented a positive fiscal trajectory

23 February 2024

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Flash Notes

Consumer inflation slows more than expected in March

17 April 2024

Flash Notes

Retail sales declined in February

17 April 2024

Flash Notes

Manufacturing output continued to show further growth in February

11 April 2024

Flash Notes

Mining output experienced a significant growth surge in February

11 April 2024

Flash Notes

QES: Formal sector jobs lost in 4Q23

26 March 2024

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Disclaimer

This Publication note is issued by FNB for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2023.