By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R5.00. We recommend a stop-loss at R4.31.
City Lodge Hotels is one of Southern Africa's leading hotel groups, operating a portfolio of 57 hotels and across South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique. The group's portfolio spans four well-established brands, namely; Courtyard Hotel, City Lodge Hotel, Town Lodge and Road Lodge, thus serving a broad range of business and leisure travellers across economy, mid-scale and upscale market segments.
The group is an established hospitality business with a strong brand reputation, a strategically located hotel portfolio, and a long track record of operational resilience. City Lodge Hotels owns most of its properties, generates strong operating cash flows, and focuses on disciplined capital allocation through hotel refurbishments, technology investments and portfolio optimisation.
Technically, the share appears to be trading within a well-defined sideways channel pattern, making it an attractive candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern indicates that the share is undergoing a period of consolidation and suggests that selling pressure is being absorbed while buyers continue to emerge near support, creating the potential for a bullish breakout.
Momentum indicators further support the constructive view, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicating fading downside momentum, and the recent sideways trend in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator suggesting that investors have largely held their positions through the consolidation phase.
The share is currently testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at around R4.50. A sustained move above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and could attract additional buying interest.
Share Performance
Share information
| Share Code | CLH |
| Industry | Consumer Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 2.43 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 16.22% |
| Return Year-to-date | -13.53% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 4.40 |
| 52- Week High (ZAR) | 5.30 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 3.74 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share price has declined year-to-date due to the macroeconomic shock from the Iran-war-related oil price spike. However, various technical indicators suggest near-term upside. | |
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| Growth (%) | 16.47 | 2.48 | 6.54 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Growth (%) | -31.33 | 1.94 | 6.67 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 10.92 | 10.65 | 10.00 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.34 | 2.39 | 2.55 | |
| While consensus expectations point to uneven earnings and dividend growth, management has noted that the local economy has gained momentum over the last six months and is widely expected to continue to improve over the next 12 months. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale
Technical Analysis
Long-term fundamental view
Update on previous Trade Ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVI SA - Close position (Stop loss) | 100.00 | 94.35 | -5.7% | The share triggered its stop-loss following a disappointing decline and the position has been closed. | 9 November 2026 |
| SPG SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 17.29 | 19.92 | +15.2# | A developing symmetrical triangle remains the key technical feature, with the share continuing to trade above its 200-day SMA. Improving upside momentum supports the trade. We maintain a profit target of R20.40, and a trailing stop-loss of R19.20. | 17 August 2026 |
| NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 142.42 | 147.70 | +3.7% | The share continues to develop within an ascending triangle pattern while remaining above its 200-day SMA. Strengthening upside momentum supports the trade. We maintain a profit target of R160.00, and a trailing stop-loss of R144.00. | 17 August 2026 |
| SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.81 | 89.27 | +2.8% | The share appears to be entering wave b within Elliott Wave theory and continues testing its 200-day SMA. Improving upside momentum remains supportive. We maintain a profit target of R98.00, and a trailing stop-loss of R87.00. | 27 September 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 977.92 | +0.1% | The share continues to develop within a bullish pennant pattern while remaining above its 200-day SMA. Intermittent downside price momentum remains a concern. We maintain a profit target of R1 202.00, and a trailing stop-loss of R932.00. | 4 November 2026 |
