By Peet Serfontein, Zimele Mbanjwa
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R109.00. We recommend a stop-loss at R96.00.
AVI Limited is a leading South African branded consumer goods company with a diversified portfolio spanning food, beverages, personal care, footwear, apparel and fashion retail. Its portfolio includes well-known brands such as Five Roses, Frisco, Willards, I&J, Yardley, Spitz and Green Cross.
The group is an established defensive consumer business with a strong market position and a long track record of returning capital to shareholders. As such, it has demonstrated a resilient financial performance through varying economic cycles, supported by strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation and a diversified revenue base.
Technically, the share appears to be developing a measured move pattern similar to a previous impulsive advance, making it an attractive candidate for a long position (see the black and dotted black arrowed lines on the main chart). If the historical pattern continues to unfold, the measured move projects an initial upside objective of approximately R109.00. A sustained move above the recent swing high would strengthen confidence in this bullish scenario.
Seasonality further supports the bullish case, with AVI historically delivering some of its strongest average returns between July and December. Momentum indicators are also improving, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggesting that downside momentum is fading and buying interest is gradually returning. The recent rise in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows increasing accumulation and strengthening investor participation.
The share is currently testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A sustained move above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and could attract additional buying interest.
Share Performance
| Share information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | AVI |
| Industry | Food, Beverage & Tobacco |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 34.18 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 9.27% |
| Return Year-to-date | -2.90% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 100.05 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 116.28 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 88.97 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| AVI's share price has declined year-to-date, but it has staged a recovery over the last month. Technical indicators suggest further upside. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 7.18 | 8.04 | 8.65 | 9.26 |
| Growth (%) | 11.99 | 7.54 | 7.13 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 6.26 | 6.97 | 7.49 | 8.03 |
| Growth (%) | 11.34 | 7.45 | 7.24 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 12.45 | 11.57 | 10.80 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 6.97 | 7.49 | 8.03 | |
| Consensus expectations point to steady earnings and dividend growth, supported by an attractive valuation and a rising yield. | ||||
Buy/Sell rationale
Technical analysis
Update on previous Trade Ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBS SA - Buy (Time to exit) | 292.09 | 296.10 | +1.4% | The share has reached its time exit, and we have closed the position. Although it remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the price is approaching this key technical level. A sustained move above the 200-day SMA could improve the technical outlook, and we may reconsider the share in the near future. | 3 July 2027 |
| SPG SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 17.29 | 19.05 | +10.2% | A developing symmetrical triangle remains the primary technical feature, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. Positive momentum continues to support the trade. We maintain a profit target at R20.40 and a trailing stop loss at R18.35. | 17 August 2026 |
| NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 142.42 | 146.48 | +2.9% | A developing ascending triangle remains the primary technical feature, with the price trading above its 200-day SMA. Positive momentum continues to support the trade. We maintain a profit target at R160.00 and a trailing stop loss at R143.00. | 17 August 2026 |
| SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 86.81 | 91.085 | +4.9% | The price action, which appears to be at the start of wave b under Elliott Wave theory, remains of interest. The share price is testing its 200-day SMA, and upside momentum is supportive. We maintain a profit target at R98.00 and a trailing stop loss at R88.60. | 27 September 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 998.22 | +2.2% | The price action in a developing bullish pennant remains of interest. The price is also holding above its 200-day SMA. However, downside momentum is a concern. We maintain a profit target at R1 202.00 and a trailing stop loss at R951. | 4 November 2026 |
