Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $135.00 and a stop-loss of $113.00.
Walmart Inc. is an American multinational omnichannel retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, grocery stores, pharmacies, and gas stations. The company offers a wide range of products, including groceries, household goods, electronics, clothing, health products and general merchandise
Walmart's business model is built on providing everyday low prices through large-scale purchasing power, efficient supply-chain management and extensive distribution networks. More than 270 million customers visit Walmart stores and website each week, making the company the biggest retailer in the world.
Technically, the seasonality profile of the stock, i.e. the tendency to deliver positive returns during the latter part of the year, presents an attractive buying opportunity. Historically, the stock has generated average gains of +1.9% in July, +0.4% in September, +2.2% in October and +3.4% in November, while August has been broadly flat. The favourable returns recorded during September and October historically align well with the expected timing of the trade.
The AI price forecast supports a bullish bias for the stock (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern is constructed using a machine-learning framework that analyses several years of historical price data together with a range of technical variables. Additionally, the target price is positioned ~4.6% above the AI's December 2026 forecast, which is not an excessive gap given the normal forecasting error associated with equity models.
Fading downside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also supports our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | WMT US |
| Industry | Consumer Staples Distribution |
| Market Capital (USD) | 950.35 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 22.88% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 7.62% |
| Current Price (USD) | 119.42 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 135.16 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 94.23 |
| Financial Year End | January |
| The share is using its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as a key support level, reinforcing the broader bullish outlook and suggesting continued upside bias. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 2.64 | 2.94 | 3.28 | 3.67 |
| Growth (%) | 11.21 | 11.78 | 11.91 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.09 |
| Growth (%) | 5.21 | 5.56 | 3.93 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 40.67 | 36.39 | 32.51 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.91 | |
| The company is expected to deliver consistent double-digit earnings growth over the medium term, supported by steady margin expansion and a resilient operating model. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | AXP - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VMC - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VRTX - Buy (Continue to hold) |
UBER - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 307.03 | 268.94 | 453.17 | 72.33 |
| Current Price | 337.78 | 299.09 | 468.42 | 69.67 |
| Movement | +10.0% | +11.2% | +3.4% | -3.7% |
| Comment |
Testing lower range of upward-sloping channel. Continues to interact with 200-day SMA; upside momentum remains supportive. Target: $352.00 | Trailing stop: $327.00 |
Strong long-term trend with improving momentum and mean reversion support. Above 200-day SMA with positive bias. Target: $314.00 | Trailing stop: ~$289.00 |
Downward-sloping broadening pattern remains in play. Above 200-day SMA with supportive upside momentum. Target: $506.00 | Trailing stop: ~$457.00 |
Lower range of inclining channel with double-bottom formation remains relevant. Below 200-day SMA; upside momentum has stalled. Target: $85.00 | Trailing stop: $67.00 |
| Time to exit | 8 July 2026 | 19 August 2026 | 26 August 2026 | 11 August 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | AXON - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 452.51 | |||
| Current Price | 433.04 | |||
| Movement | -4.3% | |||
| Comment |
AI-driven forecast remains supportive of the broader thesis. Below 200-day SMA, but upside momentum continues to underpin the trade. Target: $591.00 | Trailing stop: $406.00 |
|||
| Time to exit | 26 September 2026 |
