By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R850. We recommend a stop-loss at R677.
The NewGold ETF is a Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed, physically backed gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) that provides investors with direct exposure to the rand price of gold. Each unit is fully backed by gold bullion held in secure vaults and represents a fractional ownership of gold.
The ETF does not generate income or pay dividends, with returns derived purely from capital appreciation, making it a widely used instrument for inflation hedging, currency protection and portfolio diversification. Over the past year, GLD has delivered a strong total return of ~26.8%.
Technically, the AI Forecast and Elliott wave theory with the onset of wave 5 alignment makes the ETF an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart). The AI model forecasts a steady upward trend, projecting prices from about R786 toward R890 over the next six months and into 2027, supporting the base case target of R850 by mid August 2026. This outlook, generated using a Gradient Boosting Regressor, reflects sustained momentum rather than an overextended move. When combined with the expected Wave 5 advance, both quantitative and technical signals point to a constructive bullish setup over the forecast horizon.
The price action remains above the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) at R655.80, a key long term trend indicator and major support level. Holding above this level signals a structurally bullish trend, showing that buyers continue to defend pullbacks and reinforcing confidence in continued upside as long as the support holds.
| Share Information |
|
| Share Code
| GLD
|
| Industry |
Resources |
| Market Capital (ZAR) |
41.18 billion |
| One Year Total Return |
26.82% |
| Return Year-to-Date |
9.36% |
| Current Price (ZAR) |
727.02 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) |
829.99 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) |
529.13 |
| The ETF made good progress over the past year, and several technical indicators are guiding for upside potential. |
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
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The lower panel highlights occurrences of the Morning Star candlestick pattern, a three candle bullish reversal signal that typically marks a shift from selling pressure to rising momentum. For GLD, this signal is particularly significant due to its rarity, appearing only for the second time since 2013, and its prior occurrence in 2024 preceded a sustained upside move. The current formation therefore reinforces the case for a meaningful improvement in sentiment and supports the potential for further bullish continuation.
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The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, indicating ongoing downside momentum and therefore posing a risk to the bullish trade thesis. However, if the histogram begins to contract, it suggests that selling pressure is easing, potentially signalling an early shift toward stabilisation and improving conditions for a bullish reversal or continuation.
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The upward trend in the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator supports a bullish bias, as it shows that buying volume is dominating selling volume, which suggests accumulation and strengthening underlying demand.
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Our recommended entry range is between R715 to R740 - a drop below this level would indicate a structural change in the trend, giving reason to negate the idea.
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Our target price is R850, representing upside of ~16.8% from current levels.
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Our proposed time to exit is mid-August 2026, though investors can adjust for either a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
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A drop below R677 (downside of ~6.9% from current levels) would imply weakening technicals. As such, a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
Long term fundamental view:
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NewGold remains a leading vehicle for strategic exposure to gold, offering investors a liquid, physically backed instrument with transparent pricing and strong asset security.
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The ETF provides defensive portfolio characteristics, benefiting from gold's role as a store of value and hedge against inflation, currency weakness, and systemic risk, features that are particularly valuable during periods of economic stress and market volatility.
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NewGold has benefitted from the recent rally in precious metals, supported by a weaker rand and heightened global uncertainty, although the gold performance remains sensitive to shifts in real interest rates and risk sentiment.
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The ETF's performance has been underpinned by favourable macro drivers, including resilient gold prices and currency tailwinds, reinforcing NewGold's effectiveness as a capital preservation and diversification tool despite intermittent price volatility inherent in commodity markets.
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The investment case is structurally simple and disciplined, with full physical backing, low operational risk, and no exposure to management execution or balance-sheet leverage. As such, NewGold offers a cost-efficient way to gain pure gold exposure within a diversified portfolio.
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Key risks to the thesis include rising real yields, sustained rand appreciation, and reduced safe-haven demand, all of which could weigh on gold prices. Additionally, as a non-yielding asset, NewGold may underperform risk assets during periods of strong economic growth and tightening monetary conditions.
| Share Name and Position |
OMU SA - Buy
(Continue to hold) |
REM SA - Buy
(Continue to hold) |
BOX SA - Buy
(Continue to hold) |
| Entry |
13.85 |
181.66 |
69.99 |
| Current |
13.71 |
200.33 |
75.35 |
| Movement |
-1.0% |
+10.3% |
+7.7% |
|
A Wave 5 progression remains in focus, with the price rebounding from the 200-day moving average and downside momentum fading.
Our profit target remains at R16.30, with a trailing stop-loss at R13.25.
|
A Wave 5 remains in focus, with the price holding above the 200-day moving average and supported by positive momentum.
Our profit target remains at R204.00, with a stop-loss at R195.00.
|
The price action within the Wyckoff accumulation phase remains constructive, holding above the 200-day moving average with modest upside momentum.
Our profit target remains at R79.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R73.20.
|
| Time to exit |
29 June 2026 |
18 May 2026 |
4 May 2026 |
