Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R204. We recommend a stop-loss at R172.
Remgro is an investment holding company. Their investment portfolio spans across healthcare, consumer products, financial services, infrastructure and industrial. Remgro holds investments in Mediclinic, RCL Foods, OUTsurance, and FirstRand, amongst others.
The company invests in reputable businesses that are aligned with its values and purpose, with sound management teams that have the potential to deliver superior earnings, sustainable cash flow generation, and dividend growth over the long term.
Technically, the development of Wave 5 according to Elliott Wave Price Theory makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the number notation on the main chart). This phase signals the resumption of the primary uptrend after consolidation, with renewed buying pressure and improving sentiment that can still drive meaningful upside, as the final impulsive wave unfolds.
The weekly bullish price swing also supports our view, as bullish swings are occurring more frequently than bearish ones. Such behaviour reflects strengthening demand and suggests that recent declines are corrective, reinforcing the case for further upside within an ongoing uptrend.
The share trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) supports a bullish outlook, as this level is a key indicator of the long-term trend. Remaining above the 200-day average suggests sustained buying interest, constructive market sentiment, and a positive underlying trend, with the SMA also acting as potential support during short-term pullbacks.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | REM |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 104.56 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 31.30% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 1.31% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 183.99 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 198.56 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 127.93 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share price has risen 31.3% over the past year, reflecting strong investor confidence and improved performance across parts of its investment portfolio. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 14.09 | 15.92 | 17.90 | 19.84 |
| Growth (%) | 13.00 | 12.44 | 10.82 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 3.44 | 3.97 | 4.34 | 4.54 |
| Growth (%) | 15.49 | 9.19 | 4.70 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.56 | 10.28 | 9.27 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.16 | 2.36 | 2.47 | |
| Remgro is expected to deliver steady earnings and dividend growth over the forecast period, alongside a gradually improving valuation and rising shareholder returns. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | BOX SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
QLT SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
WBC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 69.99 | 41.14 | 43.50 | 944.40 |
| Current Price | 68.00 | 39.30 | 42.64 | 1 005.07 |
| Movement | -2.8% | -4.5% | -2.0% | +6.4% |
| Comment |
The price remains in the Wyckoff accumulation phase but recently dipped below
the 200-day simple moving average, while downside momentum raises some concern
for the trade. The profit target remains R79.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R66.00. |
The possible development of Wave 1 under Elliott Wave theory remains of interest.
The price has dipped below the 200-day SMA and downside momentum is a concern. The profit target remains R46.70 with a trailing stop-loss at R39.00. |
Strong volume support near the entry price remains constructive. The share
trades below its 200-day SMA, making this a counter-trend strategy, while fading
downside momentum provides some support. The profit target remains R51.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R44.50. |
A developing bullish pennant remains constructive while the share continues to
trade above its 200-day SMA. Muted price momentum supports the trade idea. The profit target remains R1 042.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R957.00. |
| Time to exit | 04 May 2026 | 11 May 2026 | 18 May 2026 | 06 April 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | MTM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 36.80 |
| Current Price | 36.24 |
| Movement | -1.5% |
| Comment |
The stable pattern of rising troughs and recurring upward impulses remains
constructive, with the share trading just above its 200-day simple moving
average. However, downside momentum remains a concern for the trade idea. The profit target remains R42.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R35.50. |
| Time to exit | 22 June 2026 |
