By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $780 and a stop-loss of $575.
Ubiquiti Inc. is a United States (US)-based technology company that develops and supplies high-performance networking equipment and software to businesses, internet service providers and residential users worldwide.
Founded in 2003, the company offers radios, antennas and management tools that have been designed to deliver high capacity, carrier class performance without expensive software licensing fees.
Technically, the developing falling-wedge pattern makes the stock an interesting candidate for a potential long position (see the insert on the main chart). This shows that selling pressure gradually weakened as the price formed lower highs and lower lows within a narrowing range. The apparent breakout above the wedge's upper boundary suggests that buyers are beginning to regain control and that a recovery phase may be developing.
The price is also in the Accumulation phase out of the Wyckoff Price cycle, supportive of the bullish outlook. The pattern suggests that investors may be gradually building positions while the stock consolidates within a defined range, supporting the bullish stance. A reduction in selling pressure, improving demand and repeated support near the lower boundary of the range indicate that available supply may be absorbed.
Upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, supports our bullish view.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | UI US |
| Industry | Technology Hardware & Equipment |
| Market Capital (USD) | 37.9 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | -6.22% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 13.69% |
| Current Price (USD) | 626.48 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 1 099.99 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 500.23 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The price remains below its 200-day and 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which acts as an important resistance level. A decisive break above the 200-day SMA would indicate a strong confirmation, supporting the bullish stance. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 15.95 | 17.71 | 19.58 | 21.50 |
| Growth (%) | 11.03 | 10.56 | 9.81 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Growth (%) | 17.65 | -10.00 | 0.00 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 34.39 | 31.18 | 29.14 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.57 | |
| The company is set to deliver strong earnings in the medium term, driven primarily by its Enterprise Technology platform and the rapid adoption of its enterprise networking ecosystem UniFi. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 139.03 | 160.50 | +15.4% | The price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern remains of interest. The price is also testing its 200-day SMA. Weak upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $176.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $150.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| TXN - Buy (Continue to hold) | 263.42 | 297.23 | +12.8% | The rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement remains of interest. Remains above the 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $322.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $284.00. | 17 November 2026 |
| Gild - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.77 | 144.23 | +6.2% | The AI model's forecast targeted levels remain of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $155.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$140.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| COST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 942.59 | 935.68 | -1.2% | The weekly De-trended Price Oscillator remains in deeply negative territory, which is of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA but seems to be approaching it. Fading downside price momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $1 040.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$916.00. | 17 December 2026 |
