By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R171. We recommend a stop-loss at R150.
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is Africa's premier exchange, operating as a marketplace for the trading of financial products for over a century. In this time, the JSE has evolved from a traditional floor-based equities trading market to a modern securities exchange providing fully electronic trading, clearing and settlement in equities, financial and agricultural derivatives and other associated instruments and has extensive surveillance capabilities. The JSE is also a major provider of financial data and information.
The JSE is a defensive company with strong cash generating ability and offers a good dividend yield. Improving investor appetite for emerging markets, stronger primary market activity and attractive local valuations could drive further volume growth over the medium term. The counter can be a good hedge against market shocks as these tend to lead to an increase in volumes traded.
Technically, the in-house AI model supports a medium- to longer-term bullish outlook, projecting some near-term consolidation before the share resumes its upward trajectory. While short-term weakness remains possible, the forecast points to a gradual recovery and stronger price levels over the six- to 12-month horizon.
Seasonal returns also support a bullish bias, with the final four months of the year historically delivering positive average returns. October and December have been particularly strong, suggesting that seasonality could provide an additional tailwind if supported by improving price momentum and other technical indicators.
The share remains above its rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R149.49, reinforcing the constructive longer-term trend. The level provides key support where buying interest may emerge on pullbacks, while a sustained break below it would weaken the bullish outlook.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R158.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | JSE |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 13.25 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 27.45% |
| Return Year-to-date | 15.56% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 155.38 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 178.83 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 124.54 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The share price has been trending upwards over the one-year period, with several technical indicators guiding for further upside potential. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 13.29 | 13.67 | 14.83 | 15.43 |
| Growth (%) | 2.87 | 8.46 | 4.03 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 9.61 | 10.25 | 11.12 | 11.57 |
| Growth (%) | 6.68 | 8.47 | 4.04 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.37 | 10.48 | 10.07 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 6.60 | 7.16 | 7.45 | |
| Steady earnings and dividend growth is expected over the forecast period, with an attractive dividend yield above 6%. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 183.53 | 174.81 | -4.8% | Early wave 5 development remains of interest, although the price remains below its 200-day SMA, making this counter-trend. Weak upside momentum still supports the idea. We maintain a profit target of R228.00 with a trailing stop loss at R167.00. | 4 January 2027 |
| MTN SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 199.31 | 195.86 | -1.7% | Price action appears to be entering early wave 5 under Elliott Wave theory and remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade idea. We maintain the R240.00 profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R183.00. | 23 November 2026 |
| LHC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 11.76 | 12.09 | +2.8% | Strong volume support remains encouraging, while the price continues to trade above its 200-day SMA. Renewed upside momentum strengthens the trade idea. We maintain the R13.35 profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R11.80. | 9 November 2026 |
| CML SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.21 | 43.99 | +1.8% | The possible development of Elliott Wave 5 remains interesting as the price tests its 200-day SMA. Renewed upside momentum supports the trade idea. We maintain the R49.80 profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R42.80. | 26 October 2026 |
| SSW SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.49 | 46.45 | +6.8% | The breakout from a falling wedge remains interesting, although the price has dipped below its 200-day SMA. Stalling upside momentum is a concern for the trade idea. We maintain the R56.80 profit target, with a trailing stop-loss at R45.00. | 12 October 2026 |
| INL SA - Buy (Time exit) | 135.08 | 136.15 | 0.8% | The trade is approaching its time exit. A developing ascending triangle remains interesting, while price holds above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. We retain the R153.00 target, with a trailing stop-loss at R132.60. | 21 September 2026 |
This trade idea can be action through FNB Local Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
