By Peet Serfontein and Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $38 and a stop-loss of $28.
Dow Inc. is a leading producer and distributor of chemical products. The company manufactures and supplies chemicals for liquid injection moulding, architecture fabrication, leather, textiles, automobiles, rubber consumer goods, and food industries.
Headquartered in Midland, Michigan, Dow serves customers worldwide in industries ranging from food packaging and construction to automotive manufacturing, electronics and personal care. The company combines large-scale manufacturing, scientific expertise and product innovation to develop more efficient and sustainable material solutions.
Technically, the price is currently at a historical trading zone, which makes the stock an attractive buying opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). The volume profile strengthens the bullish case for Dow given that the current price of ~$30.46 is positioned just above a significant high-volume area between roughly $28.00 and $30.00. A sustained increase in demand, supported by stronger trading volumes and a decisive breakout would confirm the transition into the mark-up phase.
The stock appears to be in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff price cycle, where selling pressure gradually weakens and institutional investors may begin building positions within a defined trading range.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the recent sideway trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports our bullish view.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | DOW |
| Industry | Materials |
| Market Capital (USD) | 22 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 30.87% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 34.66% |
| Current Price (USD) | 30.46 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 42.74 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 20.65 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price is using its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as major support and a base, further supporting the bullish outlook as it demonstrates persistent buying interest around this important long-term trend indicator. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | -0.94 | 2.49 | 1.84 | 2.15 |
| Growth (%) | -26.09 | 16.73 | ||
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 4.20 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.41 |
| Growth (%) | -66.67 | 0.00 | 0.43 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 12.23 | 16.55 | 14.17 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.59 | 4.61 | 4.63 | |
| The company is set to deliver a strong earnings recovery in the current financial year and maintain positive earnings over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD - Buy (Continue to hold) | 135.77 | 149.92 | +10.4% | The AI model's forecast targeted levels remain of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Strong upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $155.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$146.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| PEP - Buy (Continue to hold) | 140.13 | 139.79 | -0.2% | The seasonal profile for the stock remains of interest. Remains below 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $158.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $136.00. | 11 November 2026 |
| VST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 139.03 | 138.08 | -0.7% | The price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $176.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $131.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| SYK - Buy (Continue to hold) | 329.74 | 317.40 | -3.7% | The price at the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $401.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $309.00. | 14 October 2026 |
| TSN - Buy (Continue to hold) | 58.74 | 55.06 | -6.3% | The price remains in a developing inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains wedged between its 200-week SMA support and its 200-day SMA resistance. The start of downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $69.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $55.00. | 28 October 2026 |
| DD - Buy (Continue to hold) | 140.77 | 131.11 | -6.2% | The price at the start of wave 5 out of the Elliott wave price theory remains of interest. Dipped below its 200-day SMA. Downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $170.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $124.00. | 7 October 2026 |
